IWM

Flash PMIs for September 2020 around the world add more evidence to the possibility of a global slowdown during the economy's all-important rebound quarter.Credit spreads are up modestly again, having already plateaued somewhat around late July.July economic concerns continue, the first real challenge in dollar tightening since June, with several key indications being folded into that negative mix.

Housing is a long leading sector of the economy, typically giving us information 12 to 18 months into the future.New home sales are the most leading of all housing metrics, but are very volatile and heavily revised.August new home sales hit the highest level in nearly 15 years.Because they confirm the surge in the less volatile single-family housing permits, the new high is almost certainly a signal rather than a noise, a powerful plus for the economy in 2021.

We believe we have started a new economic expansion and new bull market in stocks, and that we are in the early phase in which stock returns are the greatest.This is why we view any correction in stocks to be a buying opportunity to increase our exposure to stocks and commodities above our benchmark's neutral allocation, rather than the start of a new bear market.With interest rates back at zero and likely to stay there for years to come, cash and bonds, in our view, have poor long-term return characteristics.Over the last month, we began to divest a few positions that had erased the undervaluation we saw when we first bought them as we saw growing opportunities in other areas. One of the areas that has the greatest long-term appeal, in our view, is commodities.

After the end of 2019, the U.S. economy went straight into negative territory, as the pandemic-related shutdowns produced unprecedented contractions in activity.If the Atlanta Fed is correct, the U.S. economy has made progress beyond anyone's imagination just a few short months ago.If growth can snap back earlier than expected, what happens if inflation returns more quickly than anticipated as well?

A truer picture of the employment situation is extracted from the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims (UIWC) report.Persons receiving some form of unemployment benefits account for 16.2%.Monitoring of the weekly insured unemployed can provide early indication of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.The current UIWC report shows that the economic recovery seems to be improving.

Transportation equipment and sales of motor vehicles & parts were instrumental in driving through a strong durable goods number for July.Without any likely stimulus until elections, Americans will be required to dip into their elevated savings and net-worth.Investors may consider, XTN, IYT, CARZ, or CAT.

Inflation, dormant for a decade, captured the market’s attention all summer, with unprecedented Federal Reserve stimulus and a $2 trillion federal spending package set to juice prices.

The major central banks of the world have increased their assets by 46.7% since the beginning of the year.If you don't think this affects the equity markets, I beg to differ.It is not just the vertical shift, the amount of assets they currently have, but the horizontal expansion of their intentions.