DRN

Gainers: Real Estate Bear 3X Direxion (DRV) +8.1%.Ultrashort Silver Proshares (ZSL) +7.9%.Microsectors -3X U.S. Big Oil Index ETN (NRGD) +6.8%.Junior Gold Mine Bear 3X Direxion (JDST) +5.8%.FTSE China Bull 3X Direxion (YINN) +5.4%.Losers: Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping

Gainers: Ultrashort Natural Gas Proshares (KOLD) +26.6%.Homebuild & Suppliers Bull 3X Direxion (NAIL) +22.3%.Regional Banks Bull 3X Direxion (DPST) +21.7%.Real Estate Bull 3X Direxion (DRN) +16.9%.Solar Invesco ETF (TAN) +15.5%.Losers: Ultra DJ-UBS Natural Gas Proshares (BOIL) -23.9%.Real

Leveraged ETFs sometimes have an unpredictable behavior.An illustration with 22 ETFs tracking various indexes.A closer look at SPXU.

Based on the latest sales data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, the preliminary nominal estimate of the market capitalization for new homes was $30.6 billion in August 2020.Perhaps more remarkably, the median sale price of new homes sold in the U.S. fell to an initial estimate of $312,700 in August 2020.With the trend for the sale prices of new homes generally flat to slightly falling over the last two years, the only way the market cap of new homes could increase is because of rising sales volumes.

Housing is a long leading sector of the economy, typically giving us information 12 to 18 months into the future.New home sales are the most leading of all housing metrics, but are very volatile and heavily revised.August new home sales hit the highest level in nearly 15 years.Because they confirm the surge in the less volatile single-family housing permits, the new high is almost certainly a signal rather than a noise, a powerful plus for the economy in 2021.

In this article I will walk you through the commonly used but wrong way to think about volatility decay.We'll then walk through an example of volatility decay with realistic numbers.Afterwards, we'll build a simple mathematical model to calculate volatility decay from first principles.We'll compare the model with back-test simulations done on portfoliovisualizer.com.

Leveraged ETFs sometimes have an unpredictable behavior.We illustrate our point with 22 ETFs tracking various indexes.Then, we focus on the historical and current behavior of SPXU.