DIA

2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

Wall Street Enjoys Late-Week Rally On Benign Inflation Data, Dow Jones Eyes Best Session Of 2024, Tech Unwinding Stalls: What's Driving Markets Friday?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.9% on Friday. In June, inflation dropped to 2.5% year-on-year, below the Fed's 2% target. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rebounded from a negative weekly close. Homebuilders rose over 3% for the day, reaching all-time highs.

AllianceBernstein anticipates a soft landing due to easing inflation and moderating growth

AllianceBernstein anticipates a soft landing due to easing inflation and moderating growth in the U.S. In Q3. The investment firm says growth will moderate and inflation will continue its downward trajectory in the second half of 2024. The upcoming presidential election will be a disruptive factor for investors.

Above The Noise: Countdown To A Rate Cut

Data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut soon. The implied rate suggests that the first cut may be coming in September. Value and small-cap stocks have tended to outperform growth stocks in the past. The first rate cut is expected to come soon.

PCE June 2024: Consistent With Soft Landing

Real PCE for June 2024 increased by +0.22%, slightly above the median forecast. Personal spending accelerated in June, but remains below average on a 3-month basis. Prospects for a soft landing are reasonably good, based on inflation and consumer spending data. The Fed can afford to remain patient on rate cuts.

Strong U.S. GDP Rise For Q2 Derails Recession Forecasts... Again

Stocks Rebound Higher as Deflator Report Supports Fed Rate-Cut Expectations

US stocks rebounded higher after this morning's US PCE deflator report was in line with expectations. The report supported the case for a Fed rate cut in September. The S&P 500 Index is up +0.87%, the Dow Jones industrials up +1.13%. The 10-year T-note prices rallied after the report and provided support for stocks.

GDP Prints At 2.8%, But A Recession Signal Looms