DIA

On the surface, it would seem there are few similarities between today and the late 1990s.Digging deeper, we find more similarities than dissimilarities.It should serve a warning sign.

Several GDP nowcasts for the upcoming Q3 report (due on Oct. 29 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis) are pointing to a strong rise.After plunging in March and April, the US MEI rebounded sharply but has been treading water in recent weeks.The standard numbers still leave plenty of room for caution. That includes the weekly jobless claims numbers.

Top news and what to watch in the markets on Wednesday, September 23, 2020.

Five years ago, State Street started a new, green fund. The world hasn’t been the same since.

U.S. stock and corporate bond markets performed extraordinarily well from the March financial shock caused by COVID-19 to the end of last month.Then, three consecutive weeks of decline in the three major stock market indexes have been followed this week by a global slump attributed to fears of new lockdowns.A period of disconnect of financial markets with the underlying real economy has culminated in a revelation of the former’s high dependency on Federal Reserve policies.

The Congressional Budget Office is making some projections that are breath-taking when it comes to the growth of the federal debt, but also how slow the economy is to grow.The CBO projects economic growth will average only 1.6 percent over the next thirty years and the federal debt in 2050 will be almost double the size of annual GDP.Furthermore, debt loads all over the economy are at or near historic highs and businesses and consumers will be hard-pressed to generate sufficient cash flow to carry the debt.

We are on track for the worst September since 2002, when the market sank 11% for the month.Don't underestimate the dip-buyers. Mostly retail types, they have been in control of this market since March 23.Today's action marks the beginning of the weighing machine market.

The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsberg has sparked a replay of the 2016 passing of Justice Scalia.The Federal Reserve is trying to plug a hole that fiscal policy was widely expected to fill by now.The pickup in volatility over the last couple of years is more akin to a broader "topping" process for the markets.