AMUB

Midstream companies have largely been positive on upstream consolidations, as the combined entities result in stronger customers, but management commentary on midstream consolidation has varied.As of the end of October, 34 of the 39 dividend-paying names in the Alerian Midstream Energy Index have declared their 3Q payouts, with 29 maintaining, 3 growing, and 2 cutting sequentially.Discussion of the energy transition and opportunities in renewables have shifted from the Q&A portion of 2Q20 calls to the prepared remarks for 3Q20.

In contrast to the prior midstream business model that emphasized a grow-at-all-costs mentality reflected in both dividends and capital spending, midstream has been shifting to a more sustainable growth model that is not dependent on raising equity for funding.The upshot of pressured equity performance blended with resilient EBITDA estimates is significantly discounted EV/EBITDA valuations for midstream companies relative to history, creating the opportunity for capital appreciation as multiples expand.Rather than enjoying yield alone, midstream investors can benefit from total return as a result of the more balanced approach taken by midstream companies, the potential for capital appreciation, and possible shareholder-friendly returns as free cash flow generation takes hold.

While energy companies across the sector are pounding the table on free cash flow, midstream has a distinct advantage over its counterparts when it comes to the predictability of free cash flow and the generous income on offer.In contrast with other energy sectors, midstream’s more predictable cash flows allow for a greater degree of confidence in free cash flow generation regardless of the commodity price environment.Midstream’s fee-based cash flows tend to support more predictable income for investors, whereas oil and gas producers are increasingly discussing variable or special dividends.