NVAX

In the latest trading session, Novavax (NVAX) closed at $127.43, marking a -1.96% move from the previous day.

Shares of Novavax Inc. shed 1.96% to $127.43 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around grim trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite...

-Reuters

-Reuters

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-leaders-waited-months-to-approve-distribution-plans-11610737935?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter

Last month, ahead of the release of its novel coronavirus vaccine to combat the coronavirus, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) traded as high as $178.50. Frantic buying and selling rewarded momentum traders. So, when Moderna stock traded in the range of $140 to $165, day-traders locked in gains. Source: Ascannio / Shutterstock.com The heightened volatility did not last. By mid-Dec., 2020, Moderna shares broke down below its 20-day simple moving average. Now that the stock is starting to attract buyers, what will it take for the uptrend to hold this time?InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Moderna Stock Worth Almost $150 Sixteen Wall Street analysts have mostly a “hold” or “buy” rating. The average price target is $147 (according to Tipranks). The sentiment is dictating the stock price in the near term. The company’s value will increase as governments around the world order Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine. On Jan. 6, the European Commission approved Moderna’s vaccine. This will add another 160 million doses. The EU previously approved the purchase of 300 million extra shots of the vaccine made by Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX). The total vaccination capacity, as purchased between it and Moderna, is 380 million doses. 9 Stocks That Investors Think Are the Next Amazon On Jan. 4, Israel’s Ministry of Health authorized Moderna’s vaccine. The country’s Ministry of Health secured 6 million doses. At a cost of between $32 to $37 a dose, Moderna is charging more than Pfizer’s cost of $19.50 a dose. Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), which has yet to receive approval for its vaccine, will likely charge the two-dose vaccine at $16 a dose. Investors may easily calculate Moderna’s quarterly revenue from these data points. Fair Value On a 5-year discounted cash flow growth exit model, readers may set a 14% discount rate. This would price in unknown risks ahead. For example, a slowdown in vaccine orders in two or three years and competition from other vaccine makers would justify a high discount rate. Metrics Range Conclusion Discount Rate 15.0% – 13.0% 14.00% Perpetuity Growth Rate 1.0% – 3.0% 2.00% Fair Value $130.61 – $142.55 $135.95 Model from finbox Below is a detailed revenue forecast. Change the input variables if you disagree. By updating the values, the fair value calculation will adjust as appropriate: (USD in millions) 20-Dec 21-Dec 22-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec Terminal EBITDA -225 301 1,204 3,010 506 506 D&A -79 -396 -1,583 -3,957 -8,309 -403 EBIT -304 -95 -378 -946 -7,803 103 Pro forma Taxes 0 0 0 0 0 -15 NOPAT -304 -95 -378 -946 -7,803 87 Capital Expenditures -32 -13 -81 -202 -424 -424 NWC Investment 417 2,222 8,334 16,669 30,559 1,167 (+) D&A 79 396 1,583 3,957 8,309 403 Free Cash Flow 160 2,511 9,458 19,477 30,641 1,233 % Growth 1471% 277% 106% 57% -96% Model from finbox Moderna began a favorable seasonality, suggesting upside for the next few months. Chart from Stock Rover In the chart above, Moderna’s stock tends to outperform the S&P 500 between January and May. Keep in mind that this is its historical seasonal performance. Last year’s wild ride upward may skew the results. Latest Developments Concerns over the limited availability of Moderna’s vaccine pressured the National Institute of Health to consider halving the vaccine dose. The bad news is that the study would take two months. Despite that, the NIH and Moderna would both benefit from the study. The world needs an effective vaccine released. Solving a supply constraint by tweaking the dosage could potentially save millions of lives. It would slow the rate of infection, eventually putting an end to the pandemic. In the medium term, the unfavorable vaccine pricing could pressure Moderna. Countries could choose AstraZeneca’s (NASDAQ:AZN) less expensive (but less efficient) vaccine. India already approved emergency use. Moreover, if the moderate efficacy results from the study will not compromise its benefits, AstraZeneca may end up taking more market share in coronavirus vaccine sales. In its next quarterly earnings report, Moderna will post its vaccine revenue. Markets will pay less attention to its vaccine developments in other diseases. This includes zika and cytomegalovirus. Its mRNA cancer vaccine is a promising source of long-term growth. Your Takeaway Buy Moderna stock on sustained dips. The mRNA platform is a promising scientific breakthrough. If the coronavirus vaccine works well, Moderna will expand its therapeutics across many other diseases. Its revenue potential will grow as its addressable market expands. On the date of publication, Chris Lau did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The post Why Moderna Has More Upside Than Its Covid-19 Vaccine Implies appeared first on InvestorPlace.

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) is beefing up its executive team as it prepares to release results of its late-stage coronavirus vaccine study and file for emergency use authorization.

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) is beefing up its executive team as it prepares to release results of its late-stage coronavirus vaccine study and file for emergency use authorization.What Happened: Novavax said it has appointed Dr. Henrietta Ukwu, a fellow of the American College of Physicians, to the newly created role of senior vice president, chief regulatory and quality officer.Ukwu will be responsible for global regulatory strategy and execution as well as quality assurance for its development-stage vaccine candidates, including its COVID-19 vaccine candidate NVX-CoV2373. "Dr. Ukwu brings extensive regulatory affairs and quality expertise and leadership experience at precisely the right time for Novavax, as we advance toward data readouts and regulatory submissions in 2021," Novavax CEO Stanley Erck said in a statement. Related Link: The Week Ahead In Biotech (Jan 10-16): Expect Stocks To Move As J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Kicks Off Ukwu most recently served as chief regulatory officer and global head of quality and regulatory at Otsuka Pharmaceuticals, part of Otsuka Holdings Unsponsored ADR Representing Ord Shs (OTC: OTSKY).She has led approval of many products, including Merck & Co., Inc.'s (NYSE: MRK) Varivax, a chickenpox varicella vaccine, and Crixivan, an HIV protease inhibitor that significantly impacted the treatment paradigm of HIV/AIDS.What's Next: Novavax initiated the pivotal Phase 3 study of NVX-CoV2373 in the U.S. and Mexico in late December.The company has an ongoing Phase 3 trial in the U.K. and a Phase 2b study in South Africa. A Phase 1/2 trial is also underway in the U.S. and Australia.The company expects to release data from these trials in the first quarter.NVAX Price Action: Novavax shares were down 0.99% at $128.69 at last check Friday. Related Link: The Daily Biotech Pulse: DBV's Positive FDA Feedback, Pfizer's Cancer Drug Gets Label Expansion, Applied DNA COVID Testing Volume Surges See more from Benzinga * Click here for options trades from Benzinga * Novavax Strikes Another Coronavirus Vaccine Supply Deal: Where Does The Company's Program Stand? * The Daily Biotech Pulse: Sarepta Gene Therapy Study Readout, Novavax Vaccine Supply Deal, 2 IPOs(C) 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.