IEUS

Weekly Report: what happened at IEUS last week (1127-1201)?

Global Factory Job Losses Continue As Demand Downturn Persists In November

Global manufacturing business conditions worsened for a fifteenth successive month in november. New export orders for goods falling globally for a twenty-first straight month. Europe saw the steepest downturn, while production returned to growth in mainland china. Global factory output edges lower again in november amid further demand fall.

December 2023 Monthly

The global economy appears to be entering a new phase. The us economy is expected to slow sharply in q4, with a broad slowdown in consumption, government spending, and business investment. Global central banks are facing challenges in responding to new threats to price stability. The eurozone and uk economies continue to struggle.

What Will Powell Say?

The dollar is trading softer today, with the scandis and dollar-bloc currencies leading with gains. Hong kong and south korea saw equity losses, while europe's stoxx 600 is up for the third straight gain. Caixin manufacturing unexpectedly rose to 50.7 in november. Market participants will be focused on fed chair powell's comments and stance on rate cuts.

Key Inflection Points In The Global Trade System

Home market outlook: us direct investment abroad grew 3.3% in 2022. Us investors were bullish on the global economy in the first half of the year. Markit's global economic outlook for the second quarter of 2023 is positive. The market is expected to be up 0.5% to 0.7% in the quarter.

The Dollar Is Having One Of Its Best Days This Month

The dollar is having one of its best days of the month. The dollar is rising against all major currencies. European benchmark yields are mixed, with the 10-year gilt yield up almost three basis points. Imf revised forecast for china's gdp to 5.4% but the november pmi disappointed.

Feeling Really Rervous? How Eurozone FRNs Protect Against Higher For Longer ECB Rates

Inflation errors suggest higher for longer rates in the eurozone. Eurozone inflation is higher than after the gfc and covid shocks of 2008-09 and 2020-21. A rapid fall in ecb rates is less likely, barring a eurozone banking crisis. Floating rate notes offer protection against higher rates for longer.

A Boost For European Bondholders?

While spreads have tightened within europe’s periphery, that trend could continue in a soft-landing scenario. Some believe the ecb has completed its hiking cycle in line with a soft economic landing scenario. This could benefit bondholders aiming to profit from rolling down the yield curves in countries on europe's periphery. Spain and greece appear to be best poised to benefit.