FEP

The euro has been showing signs of fatigue in the past few weeks as investors rush for safe havens amid rising uncertainty over US elections.Euro leading indicators are sending mix signals at the moment, but equities and especially banks are still pricing in a "gloomy" outlook.We will need to see further strength in economic indicators in the coming months in order to have a positive momentum in risky assets.Euro bulls should trade the single currency against GBP or CHF, but not against the US dollar in the near term.

Flash Eurozone PMI signals stalling economy as rebound from COVID-19 fades.Services contract, offsetting faster manufacturing expansion.Germany leads upturn thanks to manufacturing surge, France and periphery slip back into decline.Job losses ease but remain higher than at any time since early 2013.

First Trust Europe AlphaDEX ETF (FEP) declares $0.1401/share quarterly dividend, -18.5% decrease from prior dividend of $0.1720.Forward yield 1.72%Payable Sept. 30; for shareholders of record Sept. 25; ex-div Sept. 24.See

It used to be that central banks heavily influenced inflation through tools such as interest rates, money supply and bank reserves.However, in a post-COVID-19 world with interest rates close to their lower bounds, this balance may be shifting, with fiscal policy now a much more important factor driving inflation.Given this more subdued private sector demand and higher savings, we expect inflationary pressures to remain weak in Europe in the coming year.

Japan's August CPI was unsettling.The dollar has not been able to resurface above JPY105 today for the first time since late July.The Fed's balance sheet jumped by nearly $54 bln last week to $7.06 trillion, its largest since the end of June.Canada reports July retail sales.

The EU and the United Kingdom are not negotiating like two independent countries. The EU seems to be putting an emphasis on their past relationship, but the United Kingdom wants to exercise its sovereign rights.The UK government seems to be preparing for no-deal situation, and if it does play out that way, the COVID-19-ravaged economy is likely to see another hit.A no-deal Brexit and default to WTO rules will likely lead to further disruptions in supply chains.

Despite increasing fears of a second wave of COVID-19 infections, consensus 2020 earnings forecasts have remained stable over the past 4 weeks.US equities have benefited from smaller downgrades and the remarkable market performance of the "digital defensive" sector.We remain neutral on the outlook for global markets in aggregate while becoming increasingly optimistic on cyclical industrial sectors which are insulated from any interruption by COVID-19 social restrictions.

The final months of the year are going to be extremely challenging for the global economy, with experts predicting another significant wave of COVID-19 which risks further restrictions around the world at the expense of businesses that are already struggling to cope.Central banks are likely to be called upon again before the end of the year, and while the ECB opted against laying the groundwork for more stimulus, others may not be so hesitant.With the Fed adopting a slightly modified framework, more easing could be coming.