ASET

Several economic studies have shown that the recent trade war has done more harm than good to American manufacturing, actually reducing employment in that sector. It has also depressed US investment, which in turn weighs on economic growth. American businesses and consumers paid around $46 billion from 2018 to 2019 due to tariffs on Chinese imports — virtually none was paid by China. Trade wars appear set to continue for years to come, whoever wins the White House for the next presidential term. This will undoubtedly have a dampening effect on economic growth going forward.

"Japanification" is the process of other countries' economies becoming like that of Japan: flatlined, with little to no growth or inflation and interest rates stuck at zero indefinitely. Because of the Monetary Death Spiral process that I've described elsewhere, many countries around the world are undergoing the process of Japanification. With interest rates now stuck at zero for the long haul and the Fed focused on employment above all else, the US has now completed the process. I go through nine economic metrics to show how the United States is walking down the path of Japan.

Ample economic research has shown that excessive debt, above a certain threshold of GDP, begins to drag down economic growth. US national debt is now well above that threshold. But ballooning debt, in itself, is not the fundamental issue. It is the result of the core problem. In the coming decades, the US economy will be asked to do the impossible: grow faster even while the government extracts more of its resources. There are no easy solutions. There are only painful trade-offs.