TAPR

Things aren't so simple as positive versus negative, especially when it comes to moving progress forward - or stopping in its tracks.ABS issuers had been, since around 1995, one of the largest sources of credit for the US and global economy.Excluding the federal government, the amount of risky credit flowing into the domestic financial system and ultimately supporting the economy is actually a fraction of what had been keeping things moving.

While it would be difficult for the Fed to ease financial conditions by lowering Treasury rates further, there remains substantial room within the agency MBS market to narrow spreads.Lower mortgage rates should allow more people with higher mortgage rates to refinance and more people who are uneconomically renting the opportunity to buy a home.We believe the Fed's continued purchases remain a necessary and powerful tool to normalize this relationship and allow a seamless transmission mechanism of monetary policy to occur.

The Congressional Budget Office is making some projections that are breath-taking when it comes to the growth of the federal debt, but also how slow the economy is to grow.The CBO projects economic growth will average only 1.6 percent over the next thirty years and the federal debt in 2050 will be almost double the size of annual GDP.Furthermore, debt loads all over the economy are at or near historic highs and businesses and consumers will be hard-pressed to generate sufficient cash flow to carry the debt.

The 4-8 year period beginning in February of this year potentially will contain three or more official recessions and come to be referred to as the Depression of the 2020s.The money-supply situation today could not be more different from the money-supply situation during the early 1930s*.Because of the way the Fed measures "inflation", for the Fed to achieve its 2% "inflation" target, the average American's cost of living probably has to increase by at least 5% per year.

Coming into COVID-19, a chunk of client bond money was in higher yielding money markets since credit spreads (in my opinion) offered little value prior to March 2020.After the 35% correction in the S&P 500, and upon the announcement of the Fed liquidity programs, all that money was moved into corporate credit risk (a tactical bet) given the spread widening that happened.Can't recall the source, but Value is on track to outperform Growth for the month, for the first time in years. The question is, "is this sustainable or is it the proverbial dead-cat bounce?"

The great part about the election is, it's a known unknown. Markets are preparing for volatility around the event, even if the event takes months to reconcile.Wall Street is actively hedging risk in that time frame. That itself is bringing down risk surrounding the event.If you can keep your fear and greed under control, you can profit.The CNN Fear and Greed Index is back down to a reasonable 52, which is considered Neutral.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%. The S&P 500 fell 0.64% while the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.16%.Central banks have taken extraordinary measures to provide liquidity to the markets over the past six months.The technology sector will continue to benefit from the growing trends in internet retail, education, entertainment, medicine and work.

Three new forces are set to lift inflation beyond what markets are currently expecting in the years ahead, reversing a decade of subdued price rises.Market volatility has returned after months of steady advances in risk assets, and could stay elevated as the U.S. election draws near.Markets will focus on a slew of purchasing managers’ index data this week to gauge the latest business sentiment.