GOVT

It is not a prerequisite that an overwhelming majority of the country approve of the president for US equities to go up.It’s no secret that the US equity market has historically performed best with a divided government.This election is about who’s going to be the next president of the United States - it’s not about which sector may outperform next year, or where the stock market may be in the next four years.

When a stimulus program moves money around, some people will have more and others will have less.The purchasing power of our dollars declines with inflation, so the cost of stimulus is spread widely across the population.Helping the economy is a false justification for a stimulus program.

For FY 2020, the total deficit came in at $3.1 trillion, a record shortfall, especially compared to a red ink total of $984.4 billion for FY 2019.It was the surge in spending that accounted for 98% of the increase in the overall deficit, as total outlays exploded by more than $2.1 trillion.Looking ahead, additional fiscal stimulus does seem likely in FY 2021: It's the exact timing and magnitude that are unknown.

Widening discounts between corporate bond ETFs and NAV pricing after COVID-19 was cited as further evidence of ETF illiquidity.Higher market volatility also makes it likely NAV pricing will become stale quicker and take longer to respond to ETF prices.Trading volumes in both investment grade and high yield bond ETFs confirm there was no suggestion of a freeze in the secondary ETF market in Q1 2020.

As economic activity slows down the demand for the services of money follows suit.A fall in the prices of goods and services results in a decline in the demand for the medium of exchange.Once money enters a particular market, this means that more money is now paid for a product in that market.Contrary to commonly held beliefs, it is possible that changes in money supply and liquidity will move in different directions.

We recently reduced our exposure to bonds, the first time in years, due to the more extreme overbought condition of Treasury bonds following the pandemic's onset.In just the last 15 days, the estimates for 2021 have declined by almost $7 per share despite repeated statements of a recovering economy.In an economy where roughly 70% of Americans have little or no savings, an adjustment higher in payments significantly impacts consumption.

BlackRock downgrades nominal U.S. Treasurys to Underweight and upgrades TIPS to Overweight, saying Democratic nominee's Joe Biden lead is expanding in national polls over President Trump and the likelihood of

In response to the global COVID-19 recession, central banks across the world unleashed synchronized monetary stimulus to backstop the economy.With the lack of inflation pressure, and higher tolerance for inflation overshoots, central banks globally are likely to keep interest rates low for a long time.Today’s low-interest rate environment creates some challenges for investors looking for adequate returns through bonds, but great opportunities for borrowers and equity investors.