Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.60 Trillion From Peak To $7.36 Trillion, Lowest Since December 2020

Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet fell by $77 billion in April, to $7.36 trillion, the lowest since December 2020. Since the end of pandemic QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.60 trillion. The Fed has removed 38% of Treasury securities and 27% of MBS from the balance sheet.

U.S. Fed Keeps Interest Rates On Hold, Highlights Lack Of Progress On Inflation

U.S. Fed Keeps Interest Rates On Hold, Highlights Lack Of Progress On Inflation. Scott Colbourne with TD Asset Management says the Fed's focus is on the labor market. The Fed acknowledged a lack of progress on inflation and the reduction in the balance sheet runoff pace.

Federal Reserve Watch: The Beat Continues

Federal Reserve is committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. The Fed will continue to reduce the size of its securities portfolio but at a slower pace starting in June 2024. $34.6 billion in securities came off of the Fed's balance sheet this past week.

Dollar Is Softer Ahead Of The Employment Report

Quick Thoughts: Fed Hawks Will Fly Lower - Eventually

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Quick Thoughts: Fed Hawks Will Fly Lower - Eventually. The Federal Reserve decided to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at its meeting on May 1. The doves will come eventually - but first, we will have to wait and see these hawks fly a bit lower.

Dividends By The Numbers In April 2024

April 2024 proved to be yet another mixed month, on net, for the dividend-paying stocks of the U.S. Stock market. The number of extra dividends announced presaged a multi-year decline for the stocks in April 2014. Favorable dividend changes outnumbered unfavorable changes by a margin of 27% year-over-year. The most disappointing aspect of April 2024 is that industrial firms were not in favorables.

The Stock Market Is Vulnerable, But On Solid Footing

Home Market Outlook Today's Market The Stock Market Is Vulnerable, But On Solid Footing. The outlook for earnings growth remains fairly positive, but much of this is already in the price. This leaves the stock market vulnerable to the downside in a stagflation-like environment.

Evolving Fed Expectations And Asset-Allocation Implications

Franklin Templeton: The current macro backdrop is slightly atypical for an impending Fed easing cycle. Growth and labor markets remain strong, inflation levels are elevated. The implications for multi-asset investors remain positive for equities. We believe reflationary macro conditions and a peak in the fed funds rate are supportive for risk-taking.

Dip Or Correction?

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Dip Or Correction? Ryan Puplava looks at the reasons for the market weakness in April. Inflation and Higher Rates kick off the month of April. The 50-day moving average will be key to monitor to see if this is a short-term dip or correction.

Japan Drives Home Message

US dollar is mixed, but the spotlight is on the Japanese yen. The offshore yuan is trading stronger than the onshore yuan for the first time this year. Gold rebounded yesterday from nearly one-month lows but stalled around $2329. Japanese officials sold dollars shortly after the US equity market closed yesterday.

'Sell in May and go away': Does it apply in 2024?

'Sell in May and go away': Does it apply in 2024? The adage posits that stocks tend to underperform in the six months from May to October. The S&P 500 has had positive returns in 75% of summer periods. But bears have been pointing to the outsized market gains since late October.

Solar Stocks, Berkshire, And The Latest Costco Craze

Home Earnings Analysis Solar Stocks, Berkshire, And The Latest Costco Craze. First Solar Earnings and Shareholder Meeting on Tap. The solar industry is now among the most susceptible areas to higher borrowing costs. Costco's same-store sales figures come out this week.

Chart Of The Week: The Softening Labor Market

The latest JOLTS report showed the lowest levels of quits since early 2018 when Core PCE inflation was around 2%. The quit rate is a good measure of labor market tightness. The disinflationary trend that was dominant in 2023 is still very much intact.

Median Household Income In March 2024

Median household income increased in March 2024. Motio Research estimates the income earned by a typical American household increased by $906 (+1.2%) from its initial estimate of $77,265 for February 2024. The year-over-year growth rate of median household income has been essentially flat since September 2023.

Fed Watch: Push It Back, Push It Back, Way Back

Fed Holds Policy Steady: Rate Hikes Remain 'Unlikely' Despite Lack Of Inflation Progress

Fed Holds Policy Steady: Rate Hikes Remain 'Unlikely' Despite Lack Of Inflation Progress. The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and argued its policy stance is in a good place. But officials are concerned about the recent lack of progress on inflation. Powell says an interest rate hike is "unlikely"

The Fed Moves To Preserve Liquidity, But Investors Should Remain Cautious

The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the quantitative tightening program, selling fewer US Treasuries and potentially leading to lower interest rates. Market reaction to the changes in quantitative tightening was muted. Investors should monitor metrics such as money supply, overnight reverse repo activity, and liquidity to ensure inflation does not reignite.

SPUU Erosion Is Advancing: May Drift Dashboard

Leveraged ETFs in semiconductors, biotechnology and silver show the largest drifts. The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bull 2X Shares ETF has suffered from decay recently. Beta-slippage is the main reason why leveragedETFs underperform their underlying index.

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Powell Doesn't See The 'Stag' Or The 'Flation'

Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged as inflation progress stalls, pushing rate cuts expectations further out. Fed Chair Powell adopts a more dovish tone, mentioning stalled inflation progress. Powell dismissed the possibility of a rate hike and emphasized the strength of the economy. The QQQ is a buy.

Stagflation? Sticky Inflation? 7 Reasons For Investors To Be Positive