Above The Noise: Countdown To A Rate Cut

Data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut soon. The implied rate suggests that the first cut may be coming in September. Value and small-cap stocks have tended to outperform growth stocks in the past. The first rate cut is expected to come soon.

More Good Inflation News: David Berson's Economic Brief

Inflation Remained Low In June

Rates Spark: Euro Rates Eyeing Quicker ECB Cuts

Multi-Asset Mid-Year Outlook Global Growth Picture Supports Risk Assets

Rates Spark: Weak PMIs Help Build The Case For Rate Cuts

Weaker eurozone PMIs have helped markets price in two more ECB rate cuts for 2024. US manufacturing PMI slipped back below 50 and new home sales weakened, but services PMI edged higher. We continue to view the environment as prone to more risk-off, higher volatility and lower market rates.

What Biden's Historic Election Decision Means For Markets

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis What Biden's Historic Election Decision Means For Markets. President Joe Biden’s late withdrawal from the presidential race creates a number of significant unknowns. I expect this late-in-the-race turmoil to ramp up short-term market volatility. I’m watching the results of earnings season for signs that market performance may be broadening from the domination of the “Magnificent 7”

Rates Spark: Why September Looks Like A Good Month For An ECB Rate Cut

Rates Spark: Markets Are Still Digesting Biden's Departure

US Biden's withdrawal did not have a material impact on EUR rates. The biggest impact for Treasuries was a late-in-the-day rise in yields. Weaker growth data later this week should help the EUR curve steepening. The ECB's Survey of Monetary Analysts shows a well-anchored ECB terminal rate of 2.25%.

The Best Tech And Energy Stocks Should Remain Strong

Weekly Report: what happened at TMV last week (0715-0719)?

Has The Neutral Rate Of Interest Increased?

Rates Spark: Lagarde Clear About Not Committing To Cuts

Rates Spark: ECB Unlikely To Satisfy Doves

European Central Bank is not likely to cut at this meeting and will likely refrain from committing to future cuts. Markets are already pricing in two more 25bp cuts for this year. In the US, the momentum is stronger towards a rate cut. In France, the political challenges continue to evolve but markets remain unmoved.

Could The Fed Cut Interest Rates Twice In 2024?

US disinflation may lead to a third-quarter Fed rate cut. Recent data on US inflation shows that the disin inflationary process is picking up steam. I believe the Federal Reserve will cut before the end of the third quarter. I see room for more than one rate cut in 2024. S&P 500 companies are forecasted to deliver their highest year-over-year earnings growth.

Yield Advantage: Key Takeaways From PIMCO's Secular Outlook

Central banks have achieved disinflation. Real yields are at levels not seen in 15 years. Fiscal policy in the US and abroad is on an unsustainable path. We're in a world of elevated macro and geopolitical risk. PIMCO: There's a yield to be seized and a yield advantage.

Rates Spark: Pricing Of ECB Cuts Facing Limits

Market pricing for 2024 ECB cuts looks stretched. Markets are now pricing in 48bp of ECB cuts in 2024, just shy of two full 25bp cuts. Three UK rate cuts still on the table this year. The Fed’s Beige Book is scheduled for later today.

Rates Spark: Trump Assassination Attempt Contributes To Steeper Curves

Chart Of The Week: Treasury Yield Curve Signaling 'All Clear'

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Chart Of The Week: Treasury Yield Curve Signaling 'All Clear' ahead of many recessions in US economic history, the yield curve has gone negative - or "inverted" The 2-10 spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields is now at minus-27 basis points. The MoneyShow Chart of the Week for July 15, 2024 is Mike Larson's chart of the week.

Markets Confident That Rate Cuts Will Start In September

Markets Confident That Rate Cuts Will Start In September. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a high probability that the central bank will start cutting rates at the Sep. 18 FOMC meeting. Tomorrow’s US retail sales report for June. Signs that the US economy is slowing is another factor that supports a dovish pivot for monetary policy.