News
TMV
38.19
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U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts
US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.
Seeking Alpha · 1d ago
Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture
Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Global Market Perspectives Q2 2024: What's Not To Like?
Home Market Outlook Today's Market Perspectives Q2 2024: What's Not To Like? U.S. Economy continues to grow, overshadowing other major global economies of 2023. With most other global economies still struggling, the U.s. Will remain the strongest global performer.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing
US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped
Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Easy For Some, Harder For Most
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
The Federal Reserve Needs To Raise Interest Rates 0.25%
The Federal Reserve needs to raise their Fed funds target rate by 0.25% at their May 1 meeting. The Fed's 2% inflation target is considered optimal for economic growth and stability. Current interest rates are not historically high, and there is no need for a rate cut. Inflation figures are trending up and employment numbers are strong.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
Anatomy Of A Recession Update: What's Different About This Cycle?
Jeffrey Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the updated ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard. He says immigration has increased the growth potential of the US economy more than usual. He also shares his views on US equities and the impact of the Magnificent Seven.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over
Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
Expect A Rate Cut In November Or None At All
Today's hotter-than-expected CPI all but eliminates the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. The likelihood of cuts between July and October is slim because the pace of change is too slow to justify a cut. We've made tremendous progress in the fight against inflation. The Fed should see a cut in November or none at all.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
U.S. Inflation Quashes The Chances Of A June Fed Rate Cut
Seeking Alpha · 4d ago
Inflation, Poor Sales, And Fewer Jobs
The NFIB's reading on small business sentiment dropped to 88.5 in March. The index is the weakest reading since December 2012. The percentage of small firms reporting poor sales as their biggest issue is on the rise. Inflation and higher prices ticked higher in the survey. The most significant decline in hiring plans is down to the lowest levels since spring 2020.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Inflation Is Inevitable, You Must Act Now
Inflation is inevitable in the long term, and investors should prepare their portfolios for this environment. The current economic situation shares similarities with the period spanning from the Roaring Twenties to World War II. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin are expected to be good inflation hedges.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Is The FOMC Backing Down?
During the March FOMC meeting, the Committee held its target rate range constant at 5.25-5.5%. The bump in inflation in January and February and the strong labor market have caused participants to reassess their view of the path for policy. Nine of the participants thought three rate cuts would be appropriate in 2024.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Will Sticky Inflation Kill Prospects For Rate Cuts In 2024?
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Algorithmic (High Frequency) Trading Rears Its Ugly Head Again
High frequency trading accounts for as much as 70% of the volume in stocks traded on the U.S. Exchange. Bill Kort says computers are scanning for good economic news and bad news for stocks. He says the downside of high frequency trading is that it creates fear and distrust in the market.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
What The Bond Market Knows For Certain... That Just Ain't So
Home Investing Strategy Fixed Income Analysis What The Bond Market Knows For certain... That Just Ain't So. Jeffrey Rosenberg: The bond market outlook has improved as expected rate cuts align more closely with the Fed's projections for 2024. He says investors are positioned for a steepening of the yield curve as the Fed cuts interest rates.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Playing Demographic Divergence Now
By 2050, one in six people globally will be over the age of 65. The number of people of working age is shrinking across developed markets but growing in emerging markets. Working-age populations are declining in major economies. We favor countries that are better adapting to the demographic shifts.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
IShares Spring 2024 Investment Directions
Home Investing Strategy Portfolio Strategy IShares Spring 2024 Investment Directions. The U.S. Economy has evolved largely as we anticipated in our 2024 Year Ahead Outlook. BlackRock believes the Fed will deliver three rate cuts in 2024. Inflation is still stubbornly above the Fed’s target while economic growth is slowing.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Weekly Report: what happened at TMV last week (0401-0405)?
Weekly Report · 6d ago
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