U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later

Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher For 30 Years?

Home Investing Strategy Bonds Analysis Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher for 30 years? The Treasury curve was up 9 basis points at 2 years and was up 12 basis points in 10 years over the last week. The current negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is the longest such streak since 1976. The 1-month forward rate in 30 years jumped 0.19% to 3.77%. Inverted Treasury yield curve is an important indicator of a future recession.

SocGen says short small-cap stocks as they look vulnerable to spike in bond yields

Societe Generale says short small-cap stocks as they look vulnerable to spike in bond yields. The selloff in bonds last week pushed the 10-year yield to 4.7% for the first time in October. SocGen says small caps are still sensitive to bond moves as earnings growth stagnates.

Weekly Report: what happened at TBT last week (0415-0419)?

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Dollar Dominance And The Ghosts Of 1997

Bond yields tick down as cash moves to safety following apparent Israel strike on Iran

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Belated March CPI Analysis

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

Fed Rhetoric Turns Hawkish: ETF Strategies to Play Rising Yields

Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

A (Un)Certain Framework

Fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels

fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels. Money managers are the most bullish they have been in more than two years. Expectations for bonds have reversed and the highest percentage of respondents consider gold overvalued. Optimism on global growth rose for the first time since December 2021.

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

S&P 500 Sees More Fallout From Delayed Rate Cut Expectations

The repercussions of delayed rate cuts continued to shake out in the U.S. Stock market in the past week. The S&P 500 dropped a little over 1.5% from where it ended the previous week to close at 5,123.41 on Friday, 12 April 2024. Bad news came in the form of diminished earning expectations for big banks. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool now projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 31 July 2024.