U.S. Election: Policy And Positioning

The upcoming U.S. Election is expected to be one of the most contentious in history. Inflation is trending lower, supporting Federal Reserve rate cuts. Cyclical and secular economic factors tend to influence the market more significantly than politics. Investors should remain focused on long-term fundamentals and stay invested.

PCE Inflation Rises 2.5% In June, As Expected

Weekly Market Outlook: Central Banks And U.S. Earnings. Will The BoJ Hike Rates?

Global markets experienced a volatile week, influenced by a tech selloff, China growth concerns, and anticipation of central bank decisions. Despite the volatility, US equity funds saw inflows of $2.17 billion for the week. The FOMC and BoJ meetings and US NFP data will dominate the week ahead.

2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

Equity Investing For A New Era: The Return Of Alpha

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Equity Investing For A New Era: The Return Of Alpha. The era of easy money is ended. The post-pandemic era is setting up to be more volatile with greater differentiation across individual stocks. A more discerning market that prices stocks on underlying fundamentals is an opportunity for skilled stock pickers to outperform.

AllianceBernstein anticipates a soft landing due to easing inflation and moderating growth

AllianceBernstein anticipates a soft landing due to easing inflation and moderating growth in the U.S. In Q3. The investment firm says growth will moderate and inflation will continue its downward trajectory in the second half of 2024. The upcoming presidential election will be a disruptive factor for investors.

Above The Noise: Countdown To A Rate Cut

Data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut soon. The implied rate suggests that the first cut may be coming in September. Value and small-cap stocks have tended to outperform growth stocks in the past. The first rate cut is expected to come soon.

Strong U.S. GDP Rise For Q2 Derails Recession Forecasts... Again

Capital Markets Outlook Q3 2024: Distinguishing Signal From Noise

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Capital Markets Outlook Q3 2024: Distinguishing Signal From Noise AllianceBernstein expects economic growth to moderate and the inflation rate to descend toward the 2% range. The S&P 500 surged to new highs in the second quarter of 2024.

Is The Dramatic Yen Short Squeeze Over?

SPX 500: Further Weakness May Trigger A Medium-Term Global Risk-Off Event

Multi-Asset Mid-Year Outlook Global Growth Picture Supports Risk Assets

Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP At 2.8%, Above Forecast

Bullish sentiment sees biggest one-week drop since Feb 2023 in latest AAII survey

Bullish sentiment sees biggest one-week drop since Feb 2023 in latest AAII survey. A tech-driven wipeout on Wall Street sent the Nasdaq Composite plunging close to 4%. Bullish sentiment as per the weekly AAII investor sentiment survey slipped to 43.2% for the week ending July 24. Still, bullish sentiment remains above its historical average.

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts. GDP grew an annualised 2.8% in second-quarter 2024. Core PCE deflator rose 2.9% annualised versus the 2.7% expectation.

Wells Fargo says S&P 500 must drop another 2% before discussing a bounce

SPY: Don't Be The 'Greater Fool'

Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update

Richard Drury updated his most recent update of country risk for July 2024. He looks at political structure, exposure to war/violence, corruption, and protections for property rights. He argues that a trade-off between democracy and autocracy is more risky for investors. He says a democratic country is more likely to be stable and predictable.

Looking Back At Equity Factors In Q2 2024 With WisdomTree

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion. The powerful short-covering rally of the yen and unwinding of carry trades continues. For the second time this week, the PBOC has surprised by cutting interest rates. The US 2-10-year yield curve is the least inverted in two years.