Tuesday's ETF with Unusual Volume: FISR

Weekly Report: what happened at SPTL last week (0415-0419)?

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

What Is The U.S. National Debt's Risk To Investments?

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

A (Un)Certain Framework

Why Are U.S. Yields Rising? It's The Economy

SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury Getting Very Oversold

Iran Attacks Israel - How Could Markets Be Impacted?

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

Financial D-Day And The Rise Of The Gold Vigilantes

The U.S. Government is spending at levels typically only seen in a recession or financial panic. The national debt has ballooned to over $34 trillion. Annual interest payments on the debt are now topping $1 trillion. March 1st, 2024 could be a historic day for gold prices. Gold prices have soared from $2,000 per ounce to over £2,300 per ounce.

Possible Rising Recriminations Face The Stock Market

Fixed Income Investment Outlook Q2 2024: A Winding, Downward Path

Weekly Report: what happened at SPTL last week (0408-0412)?

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture

Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.

Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing

US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 'Fair Value' Estimate: April 11, 2024

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated fair value, says James Picerno. The view that inflation is reaccelerating remains weak, he says. Today's revised fair value estimate continues to print well below the market value of the benchmark rate.