Weekly Report: what happened at SGOV last week (0415-0419)?

Fed Interference Makes Markets Hard To Predict

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

Weekly Report: what happened at SGOV last week (0408-0412)?

Portfolio Review: The Cat, The Tortoise And Me

Mauro Solis Vazquez Mellado created three portfolios inspired by animal archetypes. The Cat, The Tortoise and Me portfolios delivered a 22.4% return from March to the end of the year. The three portfolios were created to help investors understand the investment process.

Easy For Some, Harder For Most

SGOV: Large Inflows Detected at ETF

Is The FOMC Backing Down?

During the March FOMC meeting, the Committee held its target rate range constant at 5.25-5.5%. The bump in inflation in January and February and the strong labor market have caused participants to reassess their view of the path for policy. Nine of the participants thought three rate cuts would be appropriate in 2024.

Will Sticky Inflation Kill Prospects For Rate Cuts In 2024?

What The Bond Market Knows For Certain... That Just Ain't So

Home Investing Strategy Fixed Income Analysis What The Bond Market Knows For certain... That Just Ain't So. Jeffrey Rosenberg: The bond market outlook has improved as expected rate cuts align more closely with the Fed's projections for 2024. He says investors are positioned for a steepening of the yield curve as the Fed cuts interest rates.

GOVZ: Zero Rate Cuts And More Pain For Treasury Bonds

Weekly Report: what happened at SGOV last week (0401-0405)?

SGOV: The Federal Reserve May Not Cut Rates In 2024

Predictions of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have decreased due to low unemployment and signs of an inflationary rebound. Short-term Treasuries in the ETF SGOV are expected to have increased benefits and pay a 5%+ yield for at least a year. SGOV is a valuable asset for investors with extra cash and is not affected by interest rate changes.

Here's Why 5% Is Again A Risk For The U.S. 10yr

ING: We think the Fed peaked in July 2023. The 10yr yield has not been trading in a manner consistent with prior peaks. 5% is a risk for the US 10yr. In the current cycle, the Fed hit its cycle high of 5% in October 2023, three months after the funds rate peak.

Above The Noise: Elections, Inflation, And The U.S. Banking System

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Above The Noise: Elections, Inflation, And The U.S. Banking System. By January 2025, the Federal Reserve is likely to be in an easing cycle. Jerome Powell's recent quote about the Fed, inflation, and confidence is music to Invesco's ears.

Everyone Is Expecting Rate Cuts. Are They Necessary?

Every firm is expecting rate cuts anticipating a recession but there is no recession in sight. Inflation will persist. The rise in M2 and government-directed spending virtually guarantees several years of inflation. Institutions have piled into the Mag 7 tech expecting a recession. These investors have not been sensitive to a rising economy favoring industrials and energy.

Now Is Not The Time To Buy Bonds

Now is not the time to be piling into long-duration bonds. Growth and inflation are not supportive of bonds. The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. The economic growth impulse appears a headwind for bonds.