Weekly Report: what happened at RSPD last week (1120-1124)?

U.S. Consumer Bargain Hunting Continues Into Cyber Monday As Average Discounts Rise

Lseg holiday sales forecast spending for the entire holiday season is only set to rise 1.4% over last year’s sales levels. Cyber monday discounts tend to be an extension of black friday deals. Of the 205 retailers tracked by lseg, the broadline sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate.

U.S. Holiday Sales To Grow As Slowing Inflation Readies Real Sales To Rise

Holiday retail sales are expected to grow 3.3% in 2023, below the pre-pandemic average of 3.9%. Slowing inflation and strong growth of gdp are set to keep labor markets tight, wages growing and consumers spending. Real holiday retail sales expected to rise almost 3.0% in the third quarter of 2023.

Q3 Earnings Reveal Big Dispersion, Bigger Need For Stock Selection

Fundamental equities investor carrie king looks at two areas where earnings dispersion may be creating opportunity for stock pickers. Q3 earnings season had a return to positive earnings growth for the first time since q3 2022. Earnings for s&p 500 companies largely came in better than expected for q3. Cyclicals are doing better than non-cyclicals despite fears of recession.

Consumer Inflation Is Fading Fast - And Producer Prices Turned Negative

Consumer inflation is fading fast, and producer prices actually declined last month. This means the fed is done raising key rates. Producer prices declined 0.5% in october, the first monthly decline since june. Wholesale gasoline prices declined 15.3% and wholesale prices of imports also declined in october.

U.S. Retail Black Friday Deals Arrive Early

Black friday deals are arriving earlier this year as u.s. Consumers are still dealing with higher prices. The discount penetration (how much of the assortment is on sale) rose to 42% in november. Retailers are ramping up the amount of merchandise on sale ahead of black friday.

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPD last week (1113-1117)?

VCR: Consumer Discretionary Dashboard For November

Consumer discretionary sector is slightly undervalued relative to 11-year averages. Durables and apparel have the best value score, while consumer services have the worst quality score. Hjbc's monthly dashboard shows aggregate subsector metrics in consumer discretionary. The dashboard is a top-down analysis of sector etfs like xly and vcr.

Pipeline Pressures Support The U.S. Soft Landing View

Pipeline inflation pressures as measured by ppi are very soft with headline producer prices falling 0.5% mom. Us retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in october despite credit card transaction numbers looking weak. Ppi shows weak pipeline inflation pressures and supports the soft landing narrative.

S&P 500 Earnings: Forward Growth Estimates Starting To Be Reduced

Forward growth estimates for the s&p 500 are starting to be reduced. Crude oil and gasoline have fallen sharply in the last 6 weeks. I think the trimming or revising of lower forward growth estimates is a reflection of the fomc policy. Here's a table showing the quarterly "bottom-up" growth rates for forward quarters.

Anatomy Of A Recession Update: How Long Will Consumers Keep Spending?

Jeffrey schulze, cfa, investment strategist, clearbridge investments. Jeffrey says the resilient consumer is not expected to last. Schulzes says the economy is starting to slow. Schumacher: yields have risen dramatically in response to better-than-expected numbers.

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPD last week (1106-1110)?

FDIS: Keeping Faith In The Consumer

Fidelity msci consumer discretionary index etf (fdis) has returned +7.3% over the last year. Consumer discretionary sector screens expensively at a 23x earnings multiple. Fidelity's fund is heavily concentrated around two mega-caps - amzn and tsla.

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPD last week (1030-1103)?

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPD last week (1023-1027)?

Consumer Discretionary Vs. Staples: What ETFs Can Tell Us

Halloween Inflation Is Not Spooking The U.S. Consumer

This Holiday Shopping Season Could Be A Nail-Biter

Bulls vs. Bears: Ford prepares for a key earnings release amid UAW strike

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPD last week (1016-1020)?