PCE June 2024: Consistent With Soft Landing

Real PCE for June 2024 increased by +0.22%, slightly above the median forecast. Personal spending accelerated in June, but remains below average on a 3-month basis. Prospects for a soft landing are reasonably good, based on inflation and consumer spending data. The Fed can afford to remain patient on rate cuts.

Has An Age-Old Relationship Changed?

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0715-0719)?

LTPZ: The Time Is Now (Maybe)

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities have had mixed results due to duration weakness during a rate hike cycle. Long-duration TIPS may make sense now. PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund ETF targets long-maturity TIPS exposure. The LTPZ ETF offers a valuable hedge against inflation, but may be more volatile.

Yield Advantage: Key Takeaways From PIMCO's Secular Outlook

Central banks have achieved disinflation. Real yields are at levels not seen in 15 years. Fiscal policy in the US and abroad is on an unsustainable path. We're in a world of elevated macro and geopolitical risk. PIMCO: There's a yield to be seized and a yield advantage.

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0708-0712)?

CPI June 2024:  Another Very Disinflationary Month Opens The Door To Multiple Fed Rate Cuts

June CPI data showed a surprise decrease in both All Items and Core CPI. The disinflation in the "super-core" category is particularly notable. Inflation appears to be headed towards the Fed's 2% target. James Kostohryz: Disinflation opens the door to multiple Fed rate cuts later this year.

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0701-0705)?

June 2024 Employment: Worrisome Weakness Opens Door To Rate Cuts

June 2024 Employment: Worrisome Weakness Opens Door to Rate Cuts. There was Nonfarm Payroll growth of 206K jobs, surpassing forecasts. Establishment Survey data reveals a major deceleration in job growth in the past three months. Weak job numbers increase the likelihood of rate cuts.

LTPZ Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average - Bullish for LTPZ

PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund declares monthly distribution of $0.2600

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0624-0628)?

Terrible Market Breadth: A Signal Of Future Economic Problems?

James Kostohryz: US stock market breadth has been terrible. Extreme internal divergences are breaking historical records. Poor market breadth in US equities has historically preceded business cycle recessions and bear markets in equities. He says poor market currently constitutes a price signal of underlying imbalances in the US economy.

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0617-0621)?

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0610-0614)?

CPI May 2024: Best Data In Years May Not Change Fed Rate Cut Timing

Some of the best CPI numbers in years. Downside surprises in All-Items, Core and Super-core, driven by volatile items. The Fed can afford to be patient for several months before lowering rates, says James Kostohryz. The Consumer Price Index Report was published on June 12, 2024.

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0603-0607)?

PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund declares monthly distribution of $0.4700

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0527-0531)?

Weekly Report: what happened at LTPZ last week (0520-0524)?