What Is The U.S. National Debt's Risk To Investments?

Bearish sentiment above historical averages amid rate cut uncertainty, earnings

Bearish sentiment above historical averages amid rate cut uncertainty, earnings report cards. 34% of individual investors think the market will trend down in the next six months. U.S. Stocks on Wednesday posted a four-day losing streak for the first time since the start of the year.

SPY: Resurgent Inflation, Soaring Yields, Geopolitical Turmoil - 1970s All Over Again?

U.S. Equity market has remained resilient despite resurgent inflation and soaring treasury yields. There is a risk of stagflation similar to the 1970s due to growing conflict in the Middle East. The equity market looks ripe for a correction due to high valuations and impending liquidity withdrawal.

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield is paying attention and rose to 4.67%, the highest since Nov. 6. The Treasury market has convinced the crowd to demand a higher yield.

Teen Employment Numbers Improve In March 2024

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, teen employment surged in March 2024. The number of teens Age 16 to 19 counted as employed jumped by 224,000 to reach 5,832,000. Number of Americans Age 18 and 19 with jobs rose 161,000 from the previous month to 3,756,000, the highest since April 2008.

The Stock Market Sell-Off May Have Only Just Begun

The S&P 500 has pulled back 4% from recent highs, but it's not due to geopolitical tension. Rates, the dollar, yen, and oil are not reflecting typical flight to safety characteristics. Markets are correcting for their massive blunder. Financial conditions are tightening, and the market is correcting its errors.

A Market Plagued By Uncertainty

Market volatility and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are causing market volatility. China is aiming for a GDP growth of around 5% in 2024. The country has set ambitious growth targets and aims to become a hub of innovation and sustainable development. China's economy has been under pressure for the past year and a half but is expected to recover.

SPY: Sell Signals Caused By War Uncertainty (Technical Analysis Downgrade)

The market has put sell signals on our charts due to uncertainty in the Middle East. Both daily and weekly charts show sell signals, indicating an end to the bull move in the market. Tom Lloyd Investing Group has gone to cash in our 2024MP Model Portfolio. The market is waiting for war issues to de-escalate in the middle east.

I'm Thankful For This Pullback. Finally, It's Here

After reaching new highs, the S&P 500 has experienced a sharp pullback but remains significantly above its October 2023 lows. I've been preparing for a market pullback and am happy it has finally arrived. The SPX's short-term uptrend has been breached. I view a steeper pullback as a golden opportunity to reload exposure.

Where's The Downside Tipping Point For U.S. Stocks?

SPY: Ignore The Noise And Buy The Dip

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has dropped due to hotter-than-expected inflation data. But the Q1 earnings season is expected to be strong. The market may be overvalued due to the potential long-term value of the AI revolution. I assign SPY a "Strong Buy" rating for the stock market.

A (Un)Certain Framework

The FOMC has shifted away from specific metrics and adopted a more ambiguous strategy. The Fed has been using a varied set of targets for monetary policy, but the relevance of these data points is questioned. The FomC's outlook for inflation has become increasingly tilted to the upside.

The World Is Overweight U.S. Assets

The world is now overweighting U.S. Assets by 40% of gross domestic product. By 2012, the private sector held a sizeable short position in the U.s. Dollar. As a share of GDP, the world has shifted from overweighting foreign assets to underweighting them. The world has experienced superior growth and asset market performance in the last decade.

U.K. Wage Growth Proves Sticky Despite Rising Unemployment

Private-sector pay up 12% annualised on a month-on-month basis. The unemployment rate notched up to 4.2% from 3.9%. Wage growth is temporarily stuck in the 6% area. The Bank of England will wait until August to cut rates for the first time.

Bank Discount Window Readiness After The Expiration Of The Bank Term Funding Program

The Federal Reserve is responsible for conducting monetary policy and maintaining the stability of the financial system. The Fed provided massive liquidity and implemented quantitative easing during the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic. The recent Banking Crisis of 2023 highlighted the importance of banks being ready to borrow from the Discount Window in times of emergency.

Why Are U.S. Yields Rising? It's The Economy

Despite likely Fed rate cuts this year, U.S. Government bond yields have risen on the back of stronger-than-anticipated economic performance. Rising yields reflect the outperforming economy and the market's expectations for fewer interest rate cuts. The economy isn't showing any signs of slowing and the broader disinflation trend is intact.

SPY: 10 Reasons To Believe A 10% Decline In The S&P 500 Is Forthcoming

10 Reasons To Believe A 10% Decline In The S&P 500 Is Forthcoming. The index rose 10.2% in the first quarter of 2024 for the S&p 500. In the first half of April, the index has lost 10% of its first quarter gains. Bret Jensen says the market is flashing "yellow" for the economy and equities. He cites 10 reasons why the market could pull back by at least 10% peak to trough.

Iran Attacks Israel - How Could Markets Be Impacted?

War Is Good For Stocks, Especially These

War tensions between Iran and Israel prompt selloff, but present a dip buying opportunity for stocks. History shows that war, while detrimental in the short term, can be beneficial for stocks in the long term. Defense stocks, energy, and Bitcoin are some of the best assets to buy during times of war.

Consumers Binge Despite Higher Interest Rates, And The Fed Watches Them Nervously

Retail sales in March increased by 0.7% seasonally adjusted, with a year-over-year jump of 4.0%. Total retail sales jumped 10.1% in March from February to $712 billion. Ecommerce, food services, and general merchandise retailers were the biggest drivers of growth.