2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

Strong U.S. GDP Rise For Q2 Derails Recession Forecasts... Again

Winter (Rate Cuts) Is Coming

The 2024 deficit estimate has increased by $400 billion, a 27% rise from their estimate five months ago. The U.S. Deficit for 2024 is expected to be $2.0 trillion, 7% of our Gross Domestic Product. The CBO forecasts no recession for the next decade. The IMF has warned of runaway spending in the United States.

The Case Against Lone Recession Indicators Is Stronger Than Ever

Market Rotation Update

U.S. Recession In Motion?

Weekly Report: what happened at ILCB last week (0715-0719)?

Weekly Report: what happened at ILCB last week (0708-0712)?

The Economic Cycle And The Commodity/Gold Ratio

Home Market Outlook Gold & Precious Metals The Economic Cycle And The Commodity/Gold Ratio. Steven Saville says it's not the case that the US economy has avoided a recession, but rather that the current cycle has been elongated. Saville uses the commodity/gold ratio to define booms and busts.

Is The U.S. Economy Flirting With Recession?

Weekly Report: what happened at ILCB last week (0701-0705)?

June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead?

June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead? in June 2024. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics data release, the u-3 unemployment rate increased to 4.1 percent in June. This uptick triggers theSahm Rule, a real-time recession indicator, suggesting the US economy is in, or is nearing, a recession.

Weekly Report: what happened at ILCB last week (0624-0628)?

Lags Demand Respect

Weekly Report: what happened at ILCB last week (0617-0621)?

Growth In Government Jobs Points To Recession

Is U.S. Recession Risk Rising? Warning Signs Are Starting To Emerge

Recession talk for the US is on the march again. Some indicators are highlighting decelerating growth that could be the start of trouble in the second half of the year into early 2025. Recessionary conditions could start as early as August in the US. The Economic Trend Index and Economic Momentum Index show a marked deterioration in the macro trend.

Weekly Report: what happened at ILCB last week (0610-0614)?

iShares Morningstar U.S.Equity ETF declares quarterly distribution of $0.2026

U.S. Probability Of Recession In Next 12 Months Hovers Near 70%

U.S. Probability Of Recession In Next 12 months Hovers Near 70%. The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields has been rising in recent weeks. The recession forecast model has recorded a double-top pattern and has been hovering around the 70% mark.