Weekly Commentary: Opposite Day

The Semiconductor Index surged 9.9%, more than recovering from last week's 9.2% drubbing. The Bank of Japan just can't stop playing with fire. Short squeezes are alive and well. Tesla surged 14.4% this week. The bulls have plenty of fight.

Weekly Report: what happened at FLBR last week (0415-0419)?

Weekly Report: what happened at FLBR last week (0408-0412)?

Where We Stand

Dollar Consolidates But Adjustment Is Not Over

Higher than expected US CPI for the third consecutive month drove US interest rates sharply higher and lifted the greenback broadly. The market appears to be catching its breath today, but the shallow consolidation suggests the moves are not over. The dollar has reached nearly JPY153.30. Gold fell by about $18.75 an ounce yesterday, its largest loss in about a month.

U.S. CPI, New Security Initiatives With Tokyo And Manila, Bank Of Canada Meeting

The dollar has been confined to narrow ranges ahead of the US CPI report. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that it was in no hurry to cut rates. The New Zealand dollar is leading the G10 currencies higher. The Hang Seng and the mainland companies in Asia are leading the region. Gold is consolidating in about $2345-$2360.

FLBR: Exceptional Value Threatened By Lula's Long Arm

Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR) offers a strong value profile with a high dividend yield of 9.33% in 2023. FLBR is trading at 1.5x book value and 8x earnings. There are concerns about Brazilian President Lula's interventionist policies towards key sectors like energy and materials. Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and has had an uneven growth trajectory.

Emerging Markets Activity Expands At Fastest Pace In 10 Months

Emerging Markets Activity Expands At Fastest Pace In 10 months. Incoming new business for emerging market goods and services rose in March at the quickest pace since last May. India continues to lead growth in both the manufacturing and service sectors. In March emerging markets growth accelerated at the fastest pace since May 2024.

Weekly Report: what happened at FLBR last week (0401-0405)?

Weekly Commentary: Global Ring Of Fire

Money Market Fund Assets surged $70.5 billion last week to a record $6.111 TN. Milton Friedman: The Great Depression was the height of the boom and the depth of the depression. Doug Noland says we are in the "terminal phase of history's greatest boom and bust.

Emerging Market Insights: Seeds Of Optimism

Rate Adjustment Underpins Greenback

Weekly Report: what happened at FLBR last week (0325-0329)?

April 2024 Monthly

Weekly Commentary: On Currency Watch Following Melt-Up Q1 2024

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Commentary: On Currency Watch Following Melt-Up Q1 2024. Bitcoin ended the quarter up 159% from October lows, trading at a record high. Financial conditions loosened further, building on the Fed's dovish pivot. The spectacular risk asset melt-up was ongoing.

Waller Pushes On Open Door: Push For Patience Lifts The Dollar, Complicating Japanese Efforts

Comments by Fed Governor Waller, urging patience on rates has helped the greenback extend its recent gains. Poor German data has weighed on the euro, taking the single currency to new lows for the month. Japanese officials are signaling their willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to strengthen the yen. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up three basis points.

Heightened Threat Of Japanese Intervention Pushes Greenback Away From JPY152

The dollar neared JPY152, setting a new 34-year high. Most of the G10 currencies are softer against the dollar but the yen. Chinese equities got thumped today, with the CSI 300 off nearly 1.2%. Gold is firm, recording a higher low for the third consecutive session as remains near $2200.

Weekly Report: what happened at FLBR last week (0318-0322)?

Week Ahead: Enthusiasm For The Dollar Rekindled

The Bank of Japan lifted its interest rate target for the first time in 17 years. The Swiss National Bank became the first G10 central bank to cut rates. The central bank of Mexico delivered its first rate cut. The dollar initially sold off hard but recovered to trade at new highs for the week.

CNY7.20 Gives Way As Strong Greenback Proves Too Much

The dollar's post-FOMC sell-off has been reversed and the greenback has reached new highs for the week against most of the G10 currencies. The US dollar has risen above CNY7.20 for the first time since last November. Chinese and Hong Kong equities were hit hard today and the Hang Seng fell nearly 2.2%. The yen is steady and is the best performer in Asia.