U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later

Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher For 30 Years?

Home Investing Strategy Bonds Analysis Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher for 30 years? The Treasury curve was up 9 basis points at 2 years and was up 12 basis points in 10 years over the last week. The current negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is the longest such streak since 1976. The 1-month forward rate in 30 years jumped 0.19% to 3.77%. Inverted Treasury yield curve is an important indicator of a future recession.

Weekly Report: what happened at EDV last week (0415-0419)?

Endeavour Announces Independent Non-Executive Director Nomination

John Munro has been nominated as an Independent Non-Executive Director of Endeavour Mining plc. His appointment will be voted on by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting to be held on 30 May 2024. If elected, John Munro will chair the Technical, Health and Safety Committee of the Board.

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Dollar Dominance And The Ghosts Of 1997

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Belated March CPI Analysis

Transaction in Own Shares

Small Group Of Hedge Funds Wields Dominance In US Treasury Market: 'A Concentration Of Vulnerability Has Built Up,' IMF Warns

The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns about hedge funds' increasing short positions in U.S. Treasury futures market. The IMF says a handful of highly leveraged funds now hold most of the short positions. Nearly half of all two-year Treasury futures positions are held by fewer than eight hedge funds. The concentration of short positions by hedge funds could pose systemic threats to the global economy.

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

A (Un)Certain Framework

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

S&P 500 Sees More Fallout From Delayed Rate Cut Expectations

The repercussions of delayed rate cuts continued to shake out in the U.S. Stock market in the past week. The S&P 500 dropped a little over 1.5% from where it ended the previous week to close at 5,123.41 on Friday, 12 April 2024. Bad news came in the form of diminished earning expectations for big banks. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool now projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 31 July 2024.