PBOC Surprises Markets With An Off-Schedule 20bp Cut To The MLF

PBOC Surprises Markets With An Off-Schedule 20bp Cut To The MLF. Collateral reductions for MLF signal the PBOC's intention to cool the bond market. The PBOC cut the 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate from 2.5% to 2.3%.

Election 2024: Economics, Policy And Positioning For A Soft Landing

The U.S. Economy should be resilient in the second half of 2024 and into 2025. The S&P 500 enjoyed a solid start to the year. The main risk for investors ahead of the 2024 election would be to cash out, says Seema Shah. Trade is a clear bipartisan focus for the upcoming election.

China Cuts 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate And Loan Prime Rates In Move To Support Growth

China's Third Plenum Provides Little Support To Metals

Weekly Report: what happened at ECNS last week (0715-0719)?

Weekly Commentary: Election On The Brink

Americans fear their country is spiraling out of control following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump. This week likely marked the onset of a period of de-risking/deleveraging. The S&P 500 was at record highs in Monday's trading. Doug Noland offers his weekly market commentary.

Weekly Market Outlook: U.S. PCE, GDP, And Earnings Expected To Drive Volatility

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Market Outlook: U.S. PCE, GDP, And Earnings Expected To Drive Volatility. This week, markets were influenced by trade war fears, US political developments, and a global cyber outage. In Asia, the Japanese yen weakened, and Chinese authorities remained silent on economic goals. Next week, US PCE and GDP data will be key drivers of market volatility.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook Q3 2024: Policy And Politics

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook Q3 2024: Policy And Politics. Neuberger Berman says political and market volatility is likely to rise in the second half of the year. We are concerned that the U.S. Federal Reserve may wait too long to make its first rate cut.

Rising Costs And Gloomier Prospects Cast Shadow Over Emerging Market Outlook

Emerging market economic growth was sustained at a solid pace in June, despite easing from the one-year high seen in May. The expansion was led by manufacturing as service sector growth slowed. Manufacturing production rose at the fastest pace since November 2020. Input price inflation climbed to a ten-month-high, driven by rising costs.

What To Expect From China's Monetary Policy Framework Reforms

The PBOC has signalled that changes to China's monetary policy framework may be on the horizon. Governor Pan Gongsheng has suggested the medium-term lending facility may be phased out as the main policy rate. The 7-day reverse repo rate is expected to be the main rate in the future.

China's Economy Is In Deep Trouble

China's Q2 GDP Slowed By More Than Expected In New Challenge To Achieving Growth Target

Weekly Report: what happened at ECNS last week (0708-0712)?

Emerging Markets Show Resilience Despite Global Monetary Tightening

IMF: Emerging Markets Show Resilience Despite Global Monetary Tightening. Capital flows into emerging markets have recovered from a post-pandemic low. The US accounted for 41 percent of global gross inflows in 2017-19. The IMF says emerging markets must double down on improvements in macroeconomic frameworks.

Weekly Commentary: Houston, We Have A Bubble Problem

Softer-Than-Expected June Inflation Continues To Bolster The Case For Easing In China

Weekly Report: what happened at ECNS last week (0701-0705)?

Global PMI Signals Cooler Services Inflation In June, But Goods Prices Show Further Rise

Weekly Commentary: Nothing Matters

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Commentary: Nothing Matters. Two-year Treasury yields dropped 14 bps this week, to the low since March 27th. Markets reacted to weaker-than-expected June Non-Farm payroll and ADP data. The grossly imbalanced U.S. Economy may be weaker - but not weak.

Global PMI Upturn Cools From One Year High As Outlook Darkens

Global economic growth slowed in June but remained the second-strongest seen for just over a year. The US bucked a broader developed world slowdown, with output growing at the steepest pace since April 2022. The global economy expanded for an eighth consecutive month in June. Business expectations for the year ahead are lowest for seven months.