Gold: Bears Caught In A Trap
We are in a historic political, economic and social moment.A second lockdown could be more devastating than the first, with longer-term implications.The Fed has spent trillions of dollars in stimulus, which means that inflation is likely to occur, if not hyperinflation.
Seekingalpha · 11/05 21:15
What Commodity Performance Tells Us About Economic Recovery
Within the various commodity sectors there are certain products that have outperformed others as the market recovered.Outperformance within groups is one of the keys to understanding the nature of commodity prices in relation to economic forecasts.Especially in the wake of changing central bank policy.
Seekingalpha · 11/05 08:14
Stagflation Has Returned And Food Prices Prove It
Food inflation in the United States has averaged 4% since April, similar to the beginning of the stagflation of the 1970s.Agriculture prices bottomed out as food inflation peaked in June. Now wheat, soybeans and corn prices are on the rise, which means food inflation is about to worsen.This is not due to supply shortages, as producers are short a record number of corn and soybean contracts. Plus, in gold terms, these commodities are at record lows.What is happening is that dollar positions are being exited internationally and countries are hoarding food commodities instead. Soybeans are locked in backwardation despite the harvest already being completed.This could worsen considerably once the next bailout bill passes, as dollar positions get liquidated around the world.
Seekingalpha · 11/03 15:36
Gold: Global Economic Risk Is On Red Alert Due To Pandemic
There's uncertainty about the US presidential election next week, doubts about any possible US stimulus package, tensions with China, and increasing COVID-19 cases with unemployment rates high and businesses closing.Gold and silver are bullish in the mid to long term.Europe is locking down again, which will further harm their economies.Whoever wins the US election next week is going to face the economic necessity of a larger stimulus package, which will further pump up stocks, while also being bullish for gold and silver as fears of inflation will increase.
Seekingalpha · 10/29 22:22
Gold Should Get A Stimulus Boost
Gold has been suppressed by a rally in 10-year Treasury yields.The dollar is still in the driver's seat for gold, however.I expect the dollar to weaken once the next U.S. stimulus is announced.A falling dollar will strengthen gold's price, pushing it above $2,100.
Seekingalpha · 10/22 04:33
Gold Will Surge, Just Not Yet
The election cycle and exploding Fed balance sheet will help push gold up.On a number of metrics, gold remains cheap.In the very near term, gold will be pressured until catalysts emerge. But then it promises to head much, much higher.
Seekingalpha · 10/21 16:21
Gold And Silver Showing Signs Of 'Fatigue'
In the long run, the constant rise in liquidity injected by central banks to assist the restrictive economies will support assets with limited supply, such as gold and silver.However, the rise in uncertainty over the US elections and new rounds of lockdowns to fight the pandemic will increase demand for safe assets such as the USD.A stronger USD may weigh on both gold and silver in the short run, which have already started to show some signs of fatigue.
Seekingalpha · 10/21 04:45
It's Time For Inflation Hedges: Consider Gold, Mining Stocks And Farmland
Increasing inflation has implications for businesses and workers, but this article will focus on investors.The classic inflation hedges are gold, other commodities, real estate and, some argued, stocks.There are possibilities in all these categories, though investors should not expect any of these to work perfectly.There is no asset that is obviously a slam dunk for an inflation hedge, but gold, mining stocks and farmland should be considered.
Seekingalpha · 10/18 13:22
Gold Miners M&A Valuations: Q3 2020
While M&A activity has slowed down since the first half of 2020, we've seen a massive deal this week with the planned merger of Northern Star and Saracen in Australia.Fortunately, for investors, the price paid per ounce has continued to trend up over the past few deals and is now beginning to factor in higher gold prices.The one exception is Tier-3 jurisdiction explorers, and high-cost gold producers, which continue to see a price paid per ounce well below the industry average.This article examines the price paid per ounce by suitors in deals year-to-date months to better inform the maximum valuation investors should be paying for companies when investing.
Seekingalpha · 10/06 17:27
Mainstream Investors About To Pile Into Gold
Money managers who don't recommend gold to their clients are becoming the exception rather than the rule.Right now, gold accounts for less than 1% of global investible capital.Estimates of how much gold exists above-ground are all over the place, but most cluster around an amount that yields a value of about $10 trillion at current prices.
Seekingalpha · 10/06 08:56
Precious Metals And Cryptocurrencies-Third Quarter 2020 Review
Precious metals move 14.30% higher in Q3. Silver leads the way on the upside for the second consecutive quarter with a better than 26% gain for the three months. Gold continues to march higher with an over 4.8% price increase in Q3. Platinum rallies by over 7% over the past three months. Palladium moves almost 18.5% higher.
Seekingalpha · 10/05 16:15
Gold: Prepare For A Flock Of Black Swans
The government stimulus response in March was only a fraction of what the market and the economy appeared to need.The Fed appeared to provide some artificial confidence, but furloughs, evictions, bankruptcies and defaults continue and will increase as the time for all of the government subsidies expire soon.We are entering a highly volatile period. We are facing a flock of black swans, with the latest being President Trump’s positive coronavirus test.
Seekingalpha · 10/04 14:15
Gold Mining Fundamentals Remain Supportive
The gold/oil ratio is a reasonable proxy for the average profit margin across the gold mining industry.This ratio peaked in April of this year and then plunged.It's a good bet that the April 2020 peak was the major variety, since it was driven by a spectacular collapse in the oil price that almost certainly won't be repeated within the next few years.
Seekingalpha · 09/30 13:39
Oil And Gold: Risks And Rewards
Oil prices could benefit from a disciplined OPEC+ production strategy and sharply lower US shale output.Bart: Targeting a gold price of US$2,200 in 2021; could go significantly higher beyond that.Real interest rates likely to drift lower, which is good for US gold prices.
Seekingalpha · 09/27 10:11
Gold Can Reach Extremes In Perfect Monetary Storm
The SPDR Gold ETF is near the top of our "buy zone."There's usually weakness in gold into a presidential election.QE, "helicopter money" and MMT are potential drivers of a much higher gold price.Use the next quarter to scale into an overweight gold position.Selling GLD puts with a $170 strike price is one approach to generate income and potentially grow exposure to gold.
Seekingalpha · 09/25 21:01
Precious Metals: Another Buying Opportunity Presents Itself
The sharp drop in precious metals prices over the past week has provided us with another opportunity to scale in in anticipation of the longer-term bull market.While lower near-term prices look likely, the fundamental outlook continues to improve which should enable gold, silver, and platinum to post higher lows over the coming weeks and months.The slight uptick seen in real bond yields has been entirely due to falling inflation expectations, which appears to have been driven by the equity market drop.10-year breakeven inflation expectations, at just 1.6%, remain far below the long-term inflation rate, and considerably below the 5+% annualized rate of inflation seen since May.
Seekingalpha · 09/24 23:59
Gold: Adjusting To A New Paradigm
With the government printing massive amounts of money, tensions between the US and China rising, Europe dealing with Brexit, the effects of the pandemic continuing to spread, and tensions with Iran rising, the fundamentals for gold still look fantastic.Massive unemployment, businesses closed or failed, and people leaving some of the big cities all point to a serious economic crisis and are bullish for gold.In March, the best thing the Fed did was to act right away with a stimulus package.We are dealing with a completely new set of markets in a new paradigm.
Seekingalpha · 09/23 02:59
Gold Overboughtness Risk
The persistent overboughtness in gold remains a serious downside risk. After shooting parabolic into early August, the high consolidation since has yet to rebalance away excessive greed and extreme overboughtness.Yet that still has to happen before this gold bull’s next major upleg can start marching higher. After such a vertical upleg euphorically climaxing, a correction remains highly likely.Gold’s technicals are still very stretched heading into its biggest seasonal pullback of the year. Any material selling could easily force technical breakdowns, unleashing cascading gold-futures and gold-ETF-share selling.
Seekingalpha · 09/18 19:21
Big Gold-ETF Buying Missing In Action
The big gold-ETF buying that catapulted gold higher into early August has gone missing in action since then. The major gold ETFs’ holdings have stalled out, explaining gold’s flagging momentum.With the global gold market increasingly dominated by GLD and IAU, gold can’t advance without American stock traders shifting big capital into gold through these conduits. Their buying has vanished.This gold bull’s precedent shows differential gold-ETF-share selling usually follows soon after big and fast holdings builds exhaust themselves. Young momentum-chasing traders may still need to exit frenziedly-acquired gold-ETF positions.
Seekingalpha · 09/11 18:27
GLD: No Strong Driver For Growth
Nothing prevents gold from being influenced by its main fundamental factor - the US real rate.The growth in money supply in the US in recent months will not necessarily lead to much higher inflation if the velocity of money remains at the same low level.The period of low volatility and flat curve slope is coming to an end.
Seekingalpha · 09/11 17:44
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