Weekly Report: what happened at BIL last week (0715-0719)?
Weekly Report · 1d ago
Last week recap: U.S. Treasury yields and dollar see swings
U.S. Treasury yields and dollar see swings last week as markets react to economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The 10-year yield increased by about 5 basis points to 4.24% on Friday. The US dollar's movement during last week was driven by political events and economic data.
Seeking Alpha · 1d ago
Thematic Mid-Year Update: What's Next For AI And Geopolitics
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
Has The Neutral Rate Of Interest Increased?
Seeking Alpha · 4d ago
Is US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF (XBIL) a Strong ETF Right Now?
NASDAQ · 4d ago
Rates Spark: Lagarde Clear About Not Committing To Cuts
Seeking Alpha · 4d ago
Fed rate cuts aren’t imminent as labor market data comes with caveats - Vanguard
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
When Will The Fed Cut
When will the Fed cut rates? The Fed Funds rate is currently above T-Bill market rates. The Fed will cut its rate once the T- bill rate declines and stabilizes. Todd Sullivan sees evidence of a recession hedge by institutional investors for which they have shorted T-Bills. He says the Fed has a history of missing recession signals.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Rates Spark: ECB Unlikely To Satisfy Doves
European Central Bank is not likely to cut at this meeting and will likely refrain from committing to future cuts. Markets are already pricing in two more 25bp cuts for this year. In the US, the momentum is stronger towards a rate cut. In France, the political challenges continue to evolve but markets remain unmoved.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
Could The Fed Cut Interest Rates Twice In 2024?
US disinflation may lead to a third-quarter Fed rate cut. Recent data on US inflation shows that the disin inflationary process is picking up steam. I believe the Federal Reserve will cut before the end of the third quarter. I see room for more than one rate cut in 2024. S&P 500 companies are forecasted to deliver their highest year-over-year earnings growth.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
The Coming Rate Insensitivity
The U.S. Economy will likely be de-sensitized to interest rate cuts in the next business cycle. The United States is now in a state of fiscal dominance, says Lyn Alden Schwartzer. He says the economy is likely to be in a period of higher inflation and stagflation.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
3 Bad Narratives That Are Dead (But Will Persist)
3 Bad Narratives That Are Dead (But Will Persist) Cullen Roche: Raising interest rates does not cause inflation. He says the Great Financial Crisis created some of the worst narratives in finance and economics. In 2008, the Fed cut rates to 0% and many expected this to create hyperinflation risk.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
What The U.S. Election Could Mean For Deficits, Debt And The Yield Curve
Government borrowing and the national debt are barely mentioned in the US election campaign. The US government is borrowing the equivalent of 6% of GDP and national debt totals $35tr. Failure to change trajectory risks further debt downgrades, market volatility and higher borrowing costs. Fiscal sustainability of the US is being questioned.
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF Experiences Big Inflow
NASDAQ · 6d ago
Yield Advantage: Key Takeaways From PIMCO's Secular Outlook
Central banks have achieved disinflation. Real yields are at levels not seen in 15 years. Fiscal policy in the US and abroad is on an unsustainable path. We're in a world of elevated macro and geopolitical risk. PIMCO: There's a yield to be seized and a yield advantage.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Easing Into Elections
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Rates Spark: Pricing Of ECB Cuts Facing Limits
Market pricing for 2024 ECB cuts looks stretched. Markets are now pricing in 48bp of ECB cuts in 2024, just shy of two full 25bp cuts. Three UK rate cuts still on the table this year. The Fed’s Beige Book is scheduled for later today.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Economic Update - Q2 2024
Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Economic Update - Q2 2024. The US economy is still growing but growth has slowed and signs of weakness are apparent. First quarter US real GDP figures came in at a 1.4% annual growth rate. Low savings rates and rising credit card delinquencies bear watching for a potential pullback in consumer spending. The Housing market has felt the effects of higher interest rates.
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
How Are Financial Markets Really Doing?
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
Why The Fed's Picking Up Speed Toward Rate Cuts
Seeking Alpha · 07/16 14:40
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