Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield is paying attention and rose to 4.67%, the highest since Nov. 6. The Treasury market has convinced the crowd to demand a higher yield.

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

The Federal Reserve is considering reducing the pace of quantitative tightening. The Fed's securities holdings have dropped from $8.5 trillion to $6.97 trillion. Kevin Flanagan says the Fed's ultimate goal is to have only Treasuries on its balance sheet. He says a "QT taper" is not on the immediate horizon.

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue. Inflation cooled substantially last year, but upside surprises in early 2024 for the US and Europe have many investors concerned. Global central banks seem to be making continued progress. In inflation, inflation is improving in more major economies.

Why Are U.S. Yields Rising? It's The Economy

Despite likely Fed rate cuts this year, U.S. Government bond yields have risen on the back of stronger-than-anticipated economic performance. Rising yields reflect the outperforming economy and the market's expectations for fewer interest rate cuts. The economy isn't showing any signs of slowing and the broader disinflation trend is intact.

Iran Attacks Israel - How Could Markets Be Impacted?

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Financial D-Day And The Rise Of The Gold Vigilantes

The U.S. Government is spending at levels typically only seen in a recession or financial panic. The national debt has ballooned to over $34 trillion. Annual interest payments on the debt are now topping $1 trillion. March 1st, 2024 could be a historic day for gold prices. Gold prices have soared from $2,000 per ounce to over £2,300 per ounce.

Possible Rising Recriminations Face The Stock Market

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at VGLT last week (0408-0412)?

Global Market Perspectives Q2 2024: What's Not To Like?

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Perspectives Q2 2024: What's Not To Like? U.S. Economy continues to grow, overshadowing other major global economies of 2023. With most other global economies still struggling, the U.s. Will remain the strongest global performer.

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 'Fair Value' Estimate: April 11, 2024

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated fair value, says James Picerno. The view that inflation is reaccelerating remains weak, he says. Today's revised fair value estimate continues to print well below the market value of the benchmark rate.

The Federal Reserve Needs To Raise Interest Rates 0.25%

The Federal Reserve needs to raise their Fed funds target rate by 0.25% at their May 1 meeting. The Fed's 2% inflation target is considered optimal for economic growth and stability. Current interest rates are not historically high, and there is no need for a rate cut. Inflation figures are trending up and employment numbers are strong.

Anatomy Of A Recession Update: What's Different About This Cycle?

Jeffrey Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the updated ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard. He says immigration has increased the growth potential of the US economy more than usual. He also shares his views on US equities and the impact of the Magnificent Seven.

Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over

Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.

Inflation, Poor Sales, And Fewer Jobs

The NFIB's reading on small business sentiment dropped to 88.5 in March. The index is the weakest reading since December 2012. The percentage of small firms reporting poor sales as their biggest issue is on the rise. Inflation and higher prices ticked higher in the survey. The most significant decline in hiring plans is down to the lowest levels since spring 2020.

Fixed Income: No Time To Yield

Home Investing Strategy Fixed Income Analysis Fixed Income: No Time To Yield. Bond yields are higher today than they were 20 years ago. Investors are moving back into bonds in record numbers with 2023 global bond ETF inflows of $333 billion. Steve Laipply, Global co-head of iShares’ fixed income ETFs joins Oscar Pulido on The Bid.

2024 Strategic Positioning Update

Home Investing Strategy Fixed Income Analysis 2024 Strategic Positioning Update explains how Russell Investments is positioning its portfolios for the next five years. The firm maintains a cautious risk stance and is leaning toward equities over credit. Recession risk remains elevated, but the markets are priced for an optimistic scenario. The Fed is expected to lower rates in 2024.

Inflation Is Inevitable, You Must Act Now

Inflation is inevitable in the long term, and investors should prepare their portfolios for this environment. The current economic situation shares similarities with the period spanning from the Roaring Twenties to World War II. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin are expected to be good inflation hedges.