Weekly Report: what happened at VGIT last week (0415-0419)?

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Weekly Report: what happened at VGIT last week (0408-0412)?

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.

The Federal Reserve Needs To Raise Interest Rates 0.25%

The Federal Reserve needs to raise their Fed funds target rate by 0.25% at their May 1 meeting. The Fed's 2% inflation target is considered optimal for economic growth and stability. Current interest rates are not historically high, and there is no need for a rate cut. Inflation figures are trending up and employment numbers are strong.

Anatomy Of A Recession Update: What's Different About This Cycle?

Jeffrey Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the updated ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard. He says immigration has increased the growth potential of the US economy more than usual. He also shares his views on US equities and the impact of the Magnificent Seven.

Inflation Is Inevitable, You Must Act Now

Inflation is inevitable in the long term, and investors should prepare their portfolios for this environment. The current economic situation shares similarities with the period spanning from the Roaring Twenties to World War II. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin are expected to be good inflation hedges.

Adam Abbas' Fixed Income Market Commentary - Q1 2024

Algorithmic (High Frequency) Trading Rears Its Ugly Head Again

High frequency trading accounts for as much as 70% of the volume in stocks traded on the U.S. Exchange. Bill Kort says computers are scanning for good economic news and bad news for stocks. He says the downside of high frequency trading is that it creates fear and distrust in the market.

Playing Demographic Divergence Now

By 2050, one in six people globally will be over the age of 65. The number of people of working age is shrinking across developed markets but growing in emerging markets. Working-age populations are declining in major economies. We favor countries that are better adapting to the demographic shifts.

IShares Spring 2024 Investment Directions

Home Investing Strategy Portfolio Strategy IShares Spring 2024 Investment Directions. The U.S. Economy has evolved largely as we anticipated in our 2024 Year Ahead Outlook. BlackRock believes the Fed will deliver three rate cuts in 2024. Inflation is still stubbornly above the Fed’s target while economic growth is slowing.

Weekly Report: what happened at VGIT last week (0401-0405)?

Here's Why 5% Is Again A Risk For The U.S. 10yr

ING: We think the Fed peaked in July 2023. The 10yr yield has not been trading in a manner consistent with prior peaks. 5% is a risk for the US 10yr. In the current cycle, the Fed hit its cycle high of 5% in October 2023, three months after the funds rate peak.

VGIT: ETF Inflow Alert

Now Is Not The Time To Buy Bonds

Now is not the time to be piling into long-duration bonds. Growth and inflation are not supportive of bonds. The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. The economic growth impulse appears a headwind for bonds.

New Questions Emerge On Prospects For A June Rate Cut

Forecasts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June took another hit after March manufacturing survey data for March. Markets are still pricing in moderate odds that easing will start at the end of the second quarter. But recent economic data continues to suggest that a growth bias prevails for the US.