Bond yields tick down as cash moves to safety following apparent Israel strike on Iran

Bond yields tick down as cash moves to safety following apparent Israel strike on Iran. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.59%. Yields were lower across the curve in Germany, the U.K. And Japan. Reports that Israel retaliated against Iran with a missile strike.

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest Apr. 19, 2024. September is now seen as the earliest date for policy easing. Fed funds futures on April 18 are estimating a roughly 71% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce its current 5.25-5.50% target rate at the Sep. 18 meeting.

Belated March CPI Analysis

March CPI release convinced the Fed and the market that inflation has stalled. Boy Wirat says he thinks the great inflation bubble that started three years ago has long since popped. He says the main reason inflation is still high is because of the way shelter costs are calculated. Boy says housing price inflation has dropped significantly from its peak.

PHT: Two Concerns, But Otherwise A Very Good Junk Bond Fund

Pioneer High Income Fund, Inc. Offers a reasonably attractive yield of 8.96% at the current price. The fund primarily invests in high-yield corporate bonds, with most of its assets in BB and B-rated securities. The PHT closed-end fund's share price has appreciated by 6.74% since August 2023.

Treasury yields resume climb, J.P. Morgan flags risk of US2Y consolidating at 5%

Treasury yields resume climb, J.P. Morgan flags risk of US2Y consolidating at 5% for the third time this year. New York Fed president says he doesn't feel an urgency to cut interest rates. The longer-end 30-year yield rose 4 basis points to 4.75% on Thursday. The 2-year US2y yield hit the 5% level on Wednesday.

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield is paying attention and rose to 4.67%, the highest since Nov. 6. The Treasury market has convinced the crowd to demand a higher yield.

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

The Federal Reserve is considering reducing the pace of quantitative tightening. The Fed's securities holdings have dropped from $8.5 trillion to $6.97 trillion. Kevin Flanagan says the Fed's ultimate goal is to have only Treasuries on its balance sheet. He says a "QT taper" is not on the immediate horizon.

A (Un)Certain Framework

The FOMC has shifted away from specific metrics and adopted a more ambiguous strategy. The Fed has been using a varied set of targets for monetary policy, but the relevance of these data points is questioned. The FomC's outlook for inflation has become increasingly tilted to the upside.

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher

U.S. 10-year yield tops 4.7% as yields continue to push higher. In April alone, the 10-Year Treasury yield has popped up 47 basis points. Treasury yields have exploded in April after inflation data and strong retail figures. The 10- years last topped 5% late last year.

Fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels

fund manager bullishness nears 'close-your-eyes-and-sell' levels. Money managers are the most bullish they have been in more than two years. Expectations for bonds have reversed and the highest percentage of respondents consider gold overvalued. Optimism on global growth rose for the first time since December 2021.

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Treasury yield continue to jump as the 2Y tops 5% and the 10Y hits a 5-month high

Treasury yield continue to jump as the 2Y tops 5% and the 10Y hits a 5-month high on Monday morning. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since November 14th. Yields made a push higher on Monday after a hot retail sales report and rising geopolitical tensions.

Weekly Report: what happened at IEI last week (0408-0412)?

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture

Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.

Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing

US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.