Why The Fed Will Likely Be Forced To Cut Rates Before Inflation Goals Are Met

It Looks Like That Was 'It' For The April Correction

Sentiment Speaks: The End Of Objectivity In Market Analysis And Potentially The Bull Run Too

Looking Through The Fed's Signals

Jean Boivin: We look to incoming data to determine where the Federal Reserve will go, rather than its policy signals. Inflation has been hotter than expected - a reality check for the Fed and markets. We expect the Bank of England to hold rates steady this week. Solid corporate earnings keep us overweight U.S. Stocks.

IMF 2024 Spring Meetings Takeaways: Emerging Market Stars Shine Bright

EM investors and policymakers are enjoying their moment. IMF upgraded US growth forecasts for 2024 by +0.6% of GDP and Chinese PMIs are back to expansion. Most of the concerns over emerging markets have been addressed. The mood at the 2024 IMF Spring meetings was notably upbeat.

Why The Rally Should Continue

Despite near-term challenges and increased volatility, the S&P 500 rally is expected to continue. The labor market cooling, lower oil prices, and other indicators suggest inflation could be moderating. The odds of a Fed rate cut may have become skewed and inflation data could come in lower than expected.

Jobs, Wages, Mass Immigration, Full And Part-Time Workers, Unemployment, Prime-Age Participation Rate, And Multiple Jobholders

In April, employers added 175,000 payroll jobs – excluding farm workers and the self-employed – a slower pace than in March. The total number of payroll jobs rose to a record 158.3 million. Average hourly earnings rose in March at an annualized rate of 2.4%, the smallest increase in three years. But the undercount of mass-immigration distorts the household data.

Full-Time Jobs Fall Again As Total Employment Flatlines In April

US economy added 175,000 jobs for the month of April while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. The new reported job growth was considered a 'miss' in that it came in below expectations. The total number of employed persons has flatlined while half a million full-time jobs have disappeared over the past year.

Yen Slips, Yuan Jumps, Dollar Is Mostly Softer

Weekly Market Pulse: What Did Powell Say?

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Market Pulse: What Did Powell Say? Jerome Powell was expected to be hawkish at last week's FOMC meeting. The recent rise in rates appears to have run its course, says Joseph Calhoun. He says the market should have priced in a hawkish Powell.

Weekly Report: what happened at UJAN last week (0429-0503)?

Monthly Newsletter - April 2024

Home bias has cost Canadian investors a huge amount of money. From August 2004 to June 2008, the TSX rose 84% as oil hit an all-time high. The S&P 500 rose a relatively anemic 24%. The average Canadian has 52.2% of their equities invested in Canadian stocks.

Readers Who Bought Tech During The Selloff, Watch For These Factors

Home Market Outlook: The market should continue to rise this week, particularly in the tech sector. Fed President Powell's dovish FOMC statement and the softer April jobs report will contribute to market optimism this week. The Factors are technical and economic data-related, with market psychology thrown in. David Lerner: Buy The Sell-Off Into The FOMc Meeting, Stay With Tech.

S&P 500: Ready For The Squeeze, Week Starting 6th May (Technical Analysis)

S&P500 closed +28 points higher on Thursday and Friday. The S&P 500's weekly and monthly averages are both neutral to bearish. The 20-week MA held for the third week in a row. Downside follow through in May is likely, but the market is still in a bullish mood.

The VIX Sent The Stock Market Higher, Not A 'Dovish' Fed

The stock market rally during Powell's press conference was due to the 2:35 PM ET VIX melt. Powell's recent press conference did not indicate a dovish stance on rate cuts in 2024. The immediate price action following the Fed meeting does not accurately reflect the market's longer-term direction.

Flush Money Market Funds Typically Mean Rally

Todd Sullivan says the majority of investors are still expecting a recession in the U.S. He says the record high Retail Money Fund level is consistent with a recession. The current market is in the middle of economic growth, not a recession, he says. Shorting T-Bills pushes rates higher and out of sync with the current level of pessimism. Investors should focus on well-managed companies reporting upside surprises.

May 2024 Monthly

Will U.S. Economy Stabilize In Q2 2024 After 2 Quarterly Downshifts?

Weaker U.S. Job Numbers Boost Expectations Of A September Rate Cut

Weaker U.S. Job Numbers Boost Expectations Of A September Rate Cut. Non-farm payrolls rose 175k in April versus the 240k consensus. Job creation was weaker, unemployment higher and wage growth more subdued than expected in the April employment report. The unemployment rate moves up to 3.9% from 3.8% and the average work week dropped to 34.4 hours. The report has breathed new life into Federal Reserve interest rate cut calls.

Weekly Commentary: Instability