GRAINS-Wheat futures flat as Russian supply bonanza caps gains

Recasts, adds analyst comment in paragraph 5, updates prices

PARIS/CANBERRA, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures were trading sideways on Friday after Canada's production forecast was upgraded by a smaller margin than expected, although prices hovered 33-month lows due to ample supply from Russia.

Corn and soybean futures edged lower.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was up 0.1% at $5.94-1/2 a bushel by 1110 GMT, flat over the week. Prices touched $5.70 a bushel on Tuesday, the lowest since December 2020.

Commerzbank lowered its year-end forecast for the CBOT wheat price to $6.20 per bushel from $7.60 previously.

"The continued record export volumes from Russia should serve as a price cap for . Nonetheless, we see upside potential for the wheat price in the coming months," Commzerbank said in a , citing Russian attacks on key Ukrainian infrastructure gradually hindering exports.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 were down 0.3% at $13.56-3/4 a bushel and corn Cv1 was 0.1% lower at $4.80 a bushel.

A Canadian government report on Thursday showed that local farmers will harvest 29.8 million metric tons of wheat, slightly more than previously expected but short of the average industry expectation of 30.4 million tons.

In Europe, meanwhile, consultants Strategie Grains cut their forecast for European Union soft wheat exports by 700,000 tons to 30.1 million metric tons this season, citing Russian competition.

Cheap Russian wheat supply has dominated the market, pushing down prices despite expectations that global exportable stocks will approach historic lows by mid-2024.

Looking at weather conditions, a U.S. government forecaster said there was a more than 95% chance that the El Nino weather pattern would continue through to March 2024, bringing more extreme conditions.

Dry weather brought by El Nino has lowered projected harvests in Southern Hemisphere exporters such as Australia and Argentina.

Argentina witnessed some respite, with recent rains in key agricultural areas lifting the share of planted wheat in "good or excellent" condition to around 24%, up 5.7% from a week earlier, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said.

The exchange forecast Argentina's 2023/24 harvest at 16.5 million metric tons.

In soybeans, traders await an August crush report on Friday from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) for signs that higher processing could cut into stockpiles.

Prices at 1110 GMT
	Last	Change	Pct Move
CBOT wheat Wv1	594.50	0.75	0.13
CBOT corn Cv1	480.00	-0.50	-0.10
CBOT soy Sv1	1356.75	-3.75	-0.28
Paris wheat BL2Z3	240.00	-2.00	-0.83
Paris maize EMAc1	212.25	-1.75	-0.82
Paris rapeseed COMc1	447.25	1.00	0.22
WTI crude oil CLc1	90.53	0.37	0.41
Euro/dlr EUR=	1.07	0.00	0.11
Most active contracts - Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel, Paris futures in euros per tonne

(Reporting by Peter Hobson and Sybille de La Hamaide; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Jane Merriman)

((peter.hobson@thomsonreuters.com;))