LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500: Turn date tumble, or time to throttle up?

Reuters · 03/16/2021 13:03
LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500: Turn date tumble, or time to throttle up?

Nasdaq 100 futures rise modestly; Dow, S&P 500 futures ~flat

U.S. Feb retail sales MM -3% vs -0.5% estimate

Euro STOXX 600 up ~0.7%

Dollar, gold ~flat; crude down

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.60%

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S&P 500: TURN-DATE TUMBLE, OR TIME TO THROTTLE UP? (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)

The S&P 500 index .SPX ended Monday at a record high. However, with the Northern Hemisphere's spring equinox this Saturday, it may shortly become clear whether the benchmark index is on the verge of a moon-shot to fresh records, or if the equinox's orb of influence will coincide with a reversal.

Proponents of Gann Theory, or methods of technical analysis developed by trader W.D. Gann, may look for either acceleration of the prevailing trend, or a reversal, around the summer and winter solstices, as well as the fall and spring equinoxes.

Just looking back over the past year, there has been interesting market action around these events:



The 2020 spring equinox took place on Thursday, March 19, at 11:49 PM EDT. Two trading days later, on March 23, the S&P 500 put in a surprise bottom that ended the more than 30% February/March bear market.

The 2020 summer solstice then occurred on Saturday, June 20, at 5:43 PM EDT. Earlier that week, the SPX abruptly ended what was a more than 8% one-week slide.

The 2020 fall equinox took place on Tuesday, September 22 at 09:30 AM EDT. Just one day later, the SPX concluded what was a more than 10% intraday drop from its early September high.

Most recently, the 2020 winter solstice occurred at 5:02 AM EST on December 21st. The SPX ended a more than 2% decline that day, and has since tacked on another 9% into Monday's high.

The 2021 spring equinox occurs at 05:37 AM EDT on Saturday, March 20.

Meanwhile, just as this potential turn date arrives, the SPX is up five straight days nL1N2LD27G, and nearing a more than 10-year channel resistance line that now resides around 4,010, or just 1% above Monday's finish. nL1N2K7193

This, as the Dow Industrials .DJI, up seven straight days, ended Monday within 0.5% of a 92-year resistance line. nL1N2LD0ZV

Thus, action may be about to heat up, one way or the other.


(Terence Gabriel)

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SPX03162021https://tmsnrt.rs/3bRcuq3

(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)