Adds closing prices
March 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a four-week low on Monday on forecasts for seasonally milder weather and lower heating demand in March.
After falling for seven days in a row, front-month gas futures NGc1 edged up 0.6 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.777 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Jan. 29.
Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to an average of 86.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in February as extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas and the central United States, the lowest in a month since October 2018. That compares with 91.1 bcfd in January and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would drop from 111.3 bcfd this week to 102.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. That, however, was higher than Refinitiv forecast on Friday.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 8.5 bcfd in February as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies, the lowest since October 2020. That compares with an average of 10.4 bcfd in January and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December.
Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and Asia JKMc1 remain high enough over U.S. futures to make it profitable to ship American gas across the oceans. nL1N2II17S nL1N2JI0ZF nL1N2JI0ZF nL1N2JN0JA nL1N2IB10F nL1N2HP18M nL4N2IW21S
Traders, however, noted U.S. LNG exports cannot rise much more until new units enter service in 2022 since U.S. export capacity is only 10.5 bcfd. LNG plants can pull in a little more gas than they can export since they use some of the fuel to run the facility.
Week ended Feb 26(Forecast) | Week ended Feb 19 (Actual) | Year ago Feb 26 | Five-year average Feb 26 | ||
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): | -151 | -338 | -119 | -81 | |
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2020 | Five Year Average (2016-2020) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.79 | 2.73 | 1.73 | 2.13 | 2.66 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 5.62 | 5.59 | 2.72 | 3.24 | 5.19 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 6.20 | 5.81 | 3.14 | 4.22 | 6.49 |
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 279 | 257 | 256 | 313 | 328 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 10 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 7 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 289 | 271 | 271 | 324 | 335 |
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 85.8 | 90.9 | 90.4 | 93.5 | 81.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 8.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 94.8 | 98.7 | 98.6 | 101.4 | 89.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 8.0 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 |
U.S. Commercial | 16.5 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 11.9 |
U.S. Residential | 27.3 | 22.1 | 18.3 | 19.8 | 18.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 25.0 | 25.5 | 23.5 | 28.5 | 24.9 |
U.S. Industrial | 25.0 | 24.1 | 23.4 | 23.7 | 23.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 100.9 | 92.8 | 83.9 | 91.9 | 85.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 116.8 | 111.3 | 102.9 | 108.3 | 96.2 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.66 | 2.72 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.38 | 2.36 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.57 | 3.62 | |||
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.18 | 2.07 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.60 | 2.54 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.30 | 2.60 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.90 | 2.86 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 2.41 | 2.35 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 34.50 | 33.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 21.50 | 24.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 21.00 | 23.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 24.67 | 24.59 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 20.75 | 23.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 21.50 | 24.75 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
For Refinitiv, formerly Thomson Reuters Supply Chain & Commodities Research (SC&CR), type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas
For Thomson Reuters Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal.
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C