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惠誉授予中骏集团首次'BB-'的发行人违约评级;展望稳定

· 02/08/2021 00:22
惠誉授予中骏集团首次'BB-'的发行人违约评级;展望稳定

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-08 February 2021:

本文章英文原文最初于2021年2月2日发布于:

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10151443

Fitch Assigns China SCE Group First-Time 'BB-' IDR; Outlook Stable

惠誉评级已授予中国房企中骏集团控股有限公司(中骏集团)'BB-'的长期外币发行人违约评级,展望稳定。惠誉同时授予中骏集团'BB-'的高级无抵押评级。

中骏集团评级的支持因素在于,其多元化土地储备及快速增长的合同销售额与'BB-'评级同业的水平相似。鉴于中骏集团的投资物业组合不断扩大,惠誉预计该公司的杠杆率(以包括为合资公司及联营公司提供的担保在内的净债务与调整后库存之比衡量)将逐渐上升,但未来三年内该指标可能保持在45%以下(杠杆率若达45%将可能导致惠誉考虑采取负面评级行动)。


关键评级驱动因素

销售规模有所扩大:继在2019年增长57%之后,中骏集团的合同销售总额在2020年继续增长26%至1,015亿元人民币。鉴于中骏集团在长三角、华中、华西、环渤海及台湾海峡西岸地区的多元化可售资源,惠誉预计2021至2023年间该公司的销售规模每年将增长5%-6%。中骏集团约60%的土地储备位于一二线城市,而这些城市的需求韧性较强且受新冠肺炎疫情的影响较小。

收购综合用地:中骏集团的土地储备足以支持约三年开发需求。该公司专注于收购开发和投资物业(包括购物中心及长租公寓)综合用地,而这些综合用地比通过公开拍卖拿地的成本低。因此,中骏集团开发物业业务的利润率能够保持在合理水平。惠誉预计,2021至2023年间中骏集团的EBITDA利润率(加回资本化利息)将稳定在22%-24%的水平,而2019年该指标为22%。

杠杆率逐渐上升:鉴于中骏集团的土地补充预算及其投资物业业务的资本支出,惠誉预计2020至2023年间该公司的杠杆率(以包括为合资公司及联营公司提供的担保在内的净债务与调整后库存之比衡量)将从2019年的41%升至约45%。惠誉预计,2021至2023年间中骏集团将把合同销售收入的60%-65%用于补充开发物业业务和投资物业业务所需土地,这意味着该公司杠杆率的改善空间有限——尽管其土地储备充足。

非房地产开发业务的收入有所增长:中骏集团非房地产开发业务的收入主要为投资物业租金及物业管理费。鉴于中骏集团持有多个新购物中心项目且其长租公寓的数量有所增加,惠誉预计该公司非房地产开发业务的毛利率将从2019年的7亿元人民币增长逾一倍至2023年的15亿元人民币。但是,中骏集团非房地产开发业务的收入水平对其当前评级的支持有限。

非控股权益:2019年末中骏集团非控股权益占其权益总额的比例为42%,2020年6月末为38%,高于'BB-'评级同业的平均水平。这表明中骏集团依靠非控股股东(多为房企)出资来获得业务扩张所需资金,这降低了该公司的债务融资需求,但可能导致现金漏损并削弱财务灵活性,原因是非控股权益比重较低的房企能够处置项目权益来降杠杆。


评级推导摘要

2020年中骏集团的权益合同销售额约为550亿元人民币,与禹洲集团控股有限公司(禹洲集团,BB-/稳定)的水平相似,但低于融信中国控股有限公司(融信,BB-/稳定)和合景泰富集团控股有限公司(BB-/稳定)等其他'BB-'评级同业的水平。中骏集团的土地储备和地域多元化程度与'BB-'评级同业的水平相似。

中骏集团40%-45%的杠杆率(以净债务与调整后库存之比衡量,含对外担保)与融信的杠杆率水平相似。中骏集团约30%的毛利率(加回资本化利息)与禹洲集团的水平相似,但其22%-24%的EBITDA利润率低于禹洲集团,原因在于其销售和管理支出与已确认营收的比率较高。


关键评级假设

本发行人评级研究中惠誉的关键评级假设包括:

- 2021年合同销售额增长6%,2021至2023年间每年增长5%(2020年为26%)

- 2021至2023年间现金回款与销售总额的比率为90%(2019年为96%)

- 2021至2023年间用于开发物业业务和投资物业业务的购地款与销售收入的比率约为60% (2020年为65%)

- 2021至2023年间总体EBITDA利润率(不包括资本化利息)为20%-25% (2019年为22%)


评级敏感性

可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评级行动/上调评级的因素包括:

- 权益合同销售额增至与'BB'评级同业相当的水平

- 净债务(包括为合资公司及联营公司提供的担保)与调整后库存的比率持续低于35%

可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动/下调评级的因素包括:

- 净债务(包括为合资公司及联营公司提供的担保)与调整后库存的比率持续高于45%

- EBITDA利润率(加回资本化利息)持续低于20%


最佳/最差情景评级分析

国际信用评级非金融企业发行人的评级在三年评级周期内最佳情景下的评级上调幅度 (定义为以正向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数,) 为三个子级,最差情景下的评级下调幅度 (定义为以负向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数,) 为四个子级。各评级类别最佳至最差情景的信用评级范围介于“AAA”到“D”之间。最佳和最差情景信用评级的评定基于历史表现。请访问https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579,了解关于特定行业最佳和最差情景信用评级方法的详细信息。


流动性及债务结构

流动性充足:截至2020年6月末,中骏集团持有可用现金207亿元人民币(不包括42亿元人民币的受限制现金),短期债务为207亿元人民币。2020年10月中骏集团发行了息票率7%、2025年到期的5亿美元高级票据,并赎回息票率8.75%、2021年到期的5亿美元高级票据。此外,2021年1月该公司发行了息票率6%、2026年到期的3.5亿美元高级票据。


构成评级驱动因素的关键信息来源

评级分析中使用的主要信息来源在下文列载的《适用标准》中已有披露。


相关评级委员会日期 29 January 2021
环境、社会与公司治理(ESG)方面的考虑因素

除非本节内容另有披露,ESG信用相关度评分最高为3分,表示ESG问题因其性质或受企业管理的方式而对信用的影响为中性或仅对受评企业的信用状况产生极小影响。如需了解惠誉ESG相关度评分的更多信息,请访问www.fitchratings.com/esg。



China SCE Group Holdings Limited; Long Term Issuer Default Rating; New Rating; BB-; Rating Outlook Stable
----senior unsecured; Long Term Rating; New Rating; BB-

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第二分析师
Chloe He, CFA
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Adrian Cheng,
Senior Director
+852 2263 9968

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