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惠誉授予富力地产拟发行美元债券'B+'的评级

· 02/04/2021 20:51
惠誉授予富力地产拟发行美元债券'B+'的评级

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/Shanghai-04 February 2021:

本文章英文原文最初于2021年1月24日发布于:

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10150455

Fitch Rates Guangzhou R&F's Proposed USD Notes 'B+'

惠誉评级已授予中国房企广州富力地产股份有限公司(富力地产,B+/负面)拟发行美元高级债券'B+'的评级,回收率评级为'RR4'。

该债券将由富力地产子公司富力地产(香港)有限公司(富力香港;B+/负面)的全资子公司Easy Tactic Limited发行,其评级与为其提供无条件、不可撤销担保的富力香港的评级一致。富力地产通过维好协议以及股权收购和投资承诺协议为该债券提供信用支持,并计划将该债券的净收益用于为其一年内到期的中长期债务进行再融资。

富力香港是富力地产下属唯一的境外投融资平台。惠誉根据其《母子公司评级关联性标准》评定富力香港与其母公司富力地产之间的法律关联性为中等,运营和战略关联性为强,因此将富力香港的评级与富力地产的评级等同。

富力地产评级的制约因素在于,该公司虽然业务状况强劲,但流动性疲弱且面临再融资风险。评级展望为负面是因为,富力地产的境内资本市场融资渠道有所收窄且其将到期资本市场债务存在再融资风险。但鉴于富力地产持有可售资源2,500亿元人民币,惠誉认为该公司有多种方法来应对其将到期债务。此外,富力地产正在商讨资产处置事宜,这有望带来额外的流动性并有助于去杠杆。


关键评级驱动因素

将到期债务可控:富力地产有120亿元人民币的资本市场债务将在2021年剩余时间内到期或可回售——包括2021年第二季度到期90亿元人民币以及2021年下半年到期30亿元人民币。2020年9月末富力地产的现金余额(包括受限制现金)为360亿元人民币,而该公司计划保持其中300亿元人民币用于正常经营。惠誉认为富力地产能够应对其2021年到期债务。

富力地产已使用经营性现金流(合同销售额减去开支)、出售资产、发行债券以及出售城市更新项目权益来就其2021年1月到期的190亿元人民币债券进行再融资、偿付及展期。

再融资需要充足的销售额支撑:富力地产的再融资计划是基于其预期将产生成可观的经营性现金流。2020年富力地产1,390亿元人民币的权益合同销售额同比保持平稳,但该公司仍认为其充足的可售资源将助其达成2021年销售目标。

资本市场融资渠道收窄:富力地产的境内债券市场融资渠道似乎有限,因自2020年4月发债10亿元人民币以来该公司未发行任何境内债券——其债券殖利率约为15%-20%。惠誉认为,富力地产在当前市场环境中发行境内债券可能存在困难——尽管过去三个月该公司延展了15亿元人民币的境内可回售债券。富力地产计划在境外市场发行美元债券(包括前述拟发行债券)来为其2021年第二季度到期的8亿美元债券进行再融资,但此举存在执行风险。

去杠杆取得进展:2020年前九个月富力地产在未以高利率进行再融资或出售资产的情况下将总债务和净债务分别减少了180亿元人民币和160亿元人民币,尽管其合同销售走弱,审慎拿地及成本节约令该公司腾出逾30亿元人民币的经营性现金流。2020年上半年富力地产主要股东共同控制的实体对富力地产增加了60亿元人民币资金,这也有助于削减富力地产的债务。

处置资产以去杠杆:富力地产确认在过去三个月以约140亿元人民币出售一个物流园、广州一座写字楼以及部分城市更新项目的权益。该公司已收到部分付款,并预期在未来几个月内收到余款。此外,该公司正就处置其他资产进行深入讨论。富力地产持有可变现的庞大投资物业组合(2020年9月末共计370亿元人民币)以及酒店(市值约540亿元人民币),但惠誉认为其资产处置存在执行风险。

表外债务规模小:富力地产非控股权益占其权益总额的比例保持在3%的低位,因此惠誉认为该公司的表外债务风险低于其同业,且该公司与非控股权益占比高的房企相比拥有更多的灵活性来处置开发项目权益。


评级推导摘要

富力地产1,390亿元人民币的权益合同销售额远高于'BB-'评级同业400亿元-1,000亿元人民币的水平(绿地控股集团有限公司(BB-/稳定)除外),且高于大部分'B+'评级同业的水平(但低于中国恒大集团(B+/稳定)的水平且与阳光城集团股份有限公司(阳光城,B+/稳定)的水平相似)。阳光城的平均售价比富力地产高17%,周转率亦更高;但富力地产的2019年EBITDA比阳光城高且土储规模为阳光城的两倍,因此在通过拿地支出控制杠杆率方面具有更高的灵活性。惠誉预计,2021至2023年间富力地产的杠杆率将比阳光城低大约5个百分点。

与同业相比,富力地产土地储备可支持开发的年期较长;该公司的地域多元化程度与'BB+'和'BB'评级同业的水平相当。与旭辉控股(集团)有限公司(旭辉,BB/稳定)相比,富力地产业务的地域多元化程度更高,覆盖140余个城市,多于旭辉的50余个城市。这两家公司业务的地域覆盖应能缓解地方政策干预和经济波动导致的风险。

富力地产的权益合同销售规模是正荣地产集团有限公司(正荣,B+/稳定)的两倍多。正荣的平均售价比富力地产高50%,周转率亦更高;但正荣土地储备可支持开发的年期约为2年,短于富力地产,这对其控制拿地成本的能力形成制约。2019年正荣的杠杆率比富力地产低8个百分点,但其非控股权益占比高于富力地产,这限制了其去杠杆能力。

富力地产的土储质量优于华夏幸福基业股份有限公司(华夏幸福,CCC),平均售价比华夏幸福高26%。此外,富力地产的权益合同销售规模比华夏幸福大55%。这两家房企的周转率均较低,但华夏幸福的EBITDA利润率更高。富力地产的杠杆率比华夏幸福低9个百分点,但华夏幸福在产业园开发领域的领先地位令其非房地产开发业务的EBITDA利息保障倍数高于富力地产。


关键评级假设

本发行人评级研究中惠誉的关键评级假设包括:

- 2020至2023年间权益合同销售额为1,190亿-1,320亿元人民币

- 2020至2023年间EBITDA利润率(不含销售成本中的资本化利息)为27%-29%

- 2020至2023年间合同销售收入的15%-25%用于拿地,以确保土地储备足以支持约3-4年的开发需求

- 2020至2023年间合同销售收入的45%用于支付建安成本

- 2020至2023年间平均售价年均涨幅为1%-2%

回收率评级假设:

- 作为一家资产交易型公司,富力地产若破产将走清算程序

- 扣除10%的行政费用

- 对应收账款适用30%的折扣率

- 鉴于富力地产的EBITDA利润率约为25%,对调整后净库存适用25%的折扣率

- 对投资物业、房地产、厂房及设备适用45%的折扣率

- 对房地产、厂房及设备净值适用40%的折扣率

- 对受限制的现金适用0%的折扣率

基于上述假设得出的回收率所对应的回收率评级为'RR1'。但是,富力地产的回收率评级上限为'RR4',其原因在于,根据惠誉的《回收率评级标准国别化处理》,中国在债权人友好维度上被归类为"第四类"国家,在此类国家持有资产的发行人的金融工具评级以该发行人的发行人违约评级为软上限且回收率评级上限为'RR4'。


评级敏感性

可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评级行动/上调评级的因素包括:

- 若富力地产能够持续改善流动性状况并展示在境内债券市场上大规模发债的能力,则惠誉将把该公司的评级展望调至稳定。

可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动/下调评级的因素包括:

- 资产处置推迟或出现执行问题

- 未来几个月的合同销售表现差于惠誉的预期

- 流动性状况未显著改善——现金总额与短期资本市场债务的比率持续低于0.5倍


最佳/最差情景评级分析

国际信用评级非金融企业发行人的评级在三年评级周期内最佳情景下的评级上调幅度 (定义为以正向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数,) 为三个子级,最差情景下的评级下调幅度 (定义为以负向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数,) 为四个子级。各评级类别最佳至最差情景的信用评级范围介于“AAA”到“D”之间。最佳和最差情景信用评级的评定基于历史表现。请访问https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579,了解关于特定行业最佳和最差情景信用评级方法的详细信息。


流动性及债务结构

流动性吃紧但不断改善:截至2020年前九个月,富力地产持有现金360亿元人民币(包括受限制的现金)。富力地产已偿还70亿元人民币的债务及延展另外20亿元人民币于2020年第四季度到期的债务,并已为其2021年第一季度到期的190亿元人民币债务进行再融资。富力地产有120亿元人民币的资本市场债务将于2021年到期或可回售,而惠誉预计该公司将使用库存现金、合同销售回款、资产处置收益以及通过发行新债券来应对该债务。


构成评级驱动因素的关键信息来源

评级分析中使用的主要信息来源在下文列载的《适用标准》中已有披露。


相关评级委员会日期 10 November 2020
环境、社会与公司治理(ESG)方面的考虑因素

环境、社会与公司治理(ESG)方面的考虑因素

ESG信用相关度(如有)评分最高为3分,表示ESG问题因其性质或受企业管理的方式而对信用的影响为中性或仅对受评企业的信用状况产生极小影响。如需了解惠誉ESG相关度评分的更多信息,请访问www.fitchratings.com/esg。



Easy Tactic Limited
----senior unsecured; Long Term Rating; New Rating; B+

Contacts:
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Director
+852 2263 9975
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第二分析师
Sunny Zhuang,
Senior Analyst
+86 21 6898 8090

评级委员会主席
Yee Man Chin, CFA
Senior Director
+852 2263 9696

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