Australian Stock Market Today: ASX Futures Edge Up On Stubborn Inflation And RBA Risk

The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Wednesday, 28 Oct 2026

Australian shares are set for a cautious, inflation focused open, with sentiment leaning defensive despite slightly positive index futures. The single driver today is stubborn price pressure that keeps the Reserve Bank firmly in play on rates.

Headline inflation for September printed at 4.3% year on year, above both the previous 4.0% and a 4.2% consensus view. Trimmed mean core inflation is at 3.6% year on year, close to the RBA target edge and signalling limited relief.

This mix points to borrowing costs that may stay restrictive for longer. This is particularly relevant for any business relying heavily on debt or interest sensitive demand. Higher pricing pressure can also squeeze real household incomes and limit revenue momentum across domestically focused sectors.

The unresolved question now is how forcefully the RBA responds if inflation holds near these levels into Q4. Upcoming commentary from policymakers will test whether markets lean toward extended steady rates or begin to factor in further tightening risk.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

Star Entertainment Group (SGR)

Star Entertainment has been hit with a Federal Court penalty of A$260 million for serious anti money laundering and counter terrorism financing breaches. A$195 million relates to Sydney and A$65 million to the Gold Coast, with payment staggered over 19 months. The fine adds to existing financial pressure. Investors may focus on liquidity, refinancing risks, and any response from state casino regulators.

Data#3 (DTL)

Data#3 has outlined record FY26 results with gross sales of A$3.4b and net profit after tax of A$54.5 million, plus a 13% lift in dividends per share to 31.75 cents. The group holds A$326 million in cash and no debt. A new five year Microsoft contract with the Australian Government and a growing AI and cybersecurity focus are key elements for monitoring FY27 performance expectations.

Austal (ASB)

Austal used its FY26 AGM to flag mixed conditions. Group revenue reached A$2.03b, although the firm reported an EBIT loss of A$125.2 million driven mainly by Austal USA issues. The order book sits at A$16.5b, anchored by defence work and government backed funding for Australian shipbuilding. Market attention remains on the non binding offer for Austal USA and on cash demands from US yard expansion.

Top Movers

• Lindian Resources (ASX:LIN) surged 11.69% after investors reacted to detailed Kangankunde progress and integrated rare earths plans.
• Aurelia Metals (ASX:AMI) jumped 10.26% following fresh Cobar drilling results that extended copper and gold mineralisation zones.
• Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) gained 9.96% as uranium focused traders tracked the broader resources rebound highlighted in market commentary.

Top Losers

• BMC Minerals (ASX:BMC) fell 6.59% as traders reacted to the large shareholder block trade and the quarterly spending update.
• 4DMedical (ASX:4DX) declined 4.99% after recent AGM updates on higher operating expenditure and ongoing commercial scaling costs.
• Ampol (ASX:ALD) declined 3.75%.

On The Radar

Inflation and central bank decisions dominate the next few sessions, with Westpac earnings adding a key read on Australian credit conditions and household stress.

• Australia Q3 Producer Prices (PPI QoQ) Fri 30 Oct. Consensus sits at 1% after 1.3% previously, so any print well above that would reinforce cost pressure for manufacturers and contractors and keep the RBA biased toward tighter financial conditions.
• RBA Interest Rate Decision Tue 3 Nov. The cash rate currently sits at 4.6%. A decision in line with the 4.6% forecast would still leave mortgages and business loans on a restrictive footing for banks, retailers and housing exposed stocks.
• RBA Press Conference Tue 3 Nov. The tone around stubborn 4.3% headline inflation and 3.6% trimmed mean will matter for rate path expectations, which in turn shape A$ moves and valuations for rate sensitive sectors like real estate and small caps.
• Westpac Banking Mon 2 Nov. FY26 final results from one of the major banks put the spotlight on net interest margins and bad debt charges, giving you a clearer sense of how higher borrowing costs are feeding through to mortgages and business lending.
• US Fed Interest Rate Decision Wed 28 Oct. The policy rate currently sits at 4% with consensus at 4.0%. Any surprise on rates or guidance would ripple through the US dollar and global risk appetite, affecting A$ and resource heavy Australian stocks.

Sector & Industry Watch

Real Estate: Rate pressure but dealmaking alive

Real Estate has climbed over the past week and month, even though the 1 year and year to date returns remain weaker. Takeover activity around Ingenia Communities and steady updates from Dexus show cashed up buyers still transacting where assets and management look solid, despite higher borrowing costs.

If you hold A REITs for income, the practical lever now is how boards juggle asset sales, debt levels and payout ratios while the cash rate sits at 4.6% and inflation runs at 4.3%.

Financials and Banks: Higher inflation keeps margins in focus

Financials have been moving higher over the past week, with Banks climbing even more on that 7 day view and edging into positive territory year to date. Recent news from BSP Financial Group, Insurance Australia Group and Wisr shows lending, fee income and wholesale funding still active as the sector prices a 4.6% cash rate against inflation at 4.3%.

If you rely on bank dividends, pay close attention to upcoming Westpac results and the RBA Senate appearance because commentary on bad debts and loan growth gives a clearer read on how households are coping with higher repayments.

Materials and Metals and Mining: Busy project pipelines, softer recent returns

Materials and Metals and Mining have both declined over the past 7 and 30 days, although 1 year returns are modestly positive and roughly flat year to date. That softer patch arrives alongside a heavy run of news across gold, copper, rare earths and lithium, including Turaco Gold’s Afema consolidation, Brightstar’s A$82 million raise and multiple quarterly reports from ASX miners.

If you own iron ore, gold or battery metal stocks, the next local swing factor is the Q3 Producer Price Index. A result well above expectations would reinforce cost pressure for miners with big energy and contractor bills and keep markets focused on how long RBA policy stays restrictive.

Energy and Oil and Gas: Strong year to date, brief pullback

Energy and Oil and Gas have eased slightly over the past week after strong year to date gains in both sectors. Corporate moves from Woodside Energy Group on Greater Sunrise, Tamboran’s upcoming Beetaloo update and progress reports from smaller producers and explorers show a full project pipeline underneath the short term price dip.

If your portfolio includes fuel producers or petrol exposed companies, watch the US crude inventory and Fed rate decisions. Shifts in the oil price and the A$ can feed into pump prices, cash flow for ASX energy stocks and how investors treat the sector after its strong run this year.

Consumer Discretionary: Inflation squeezes the optional spend

Consumer Discretionary has slipped over the past week, even though 30 day returns are stronger and the 1 year and year to date numbers remain weaker. Governance concerns at Simonds Group, takeover activity at Accent Group and pressure on retailers and entertainment stocks highlight how tighter budgets and higher rates are shaping spending behaviour.

If you hold retailers, auto groups or casinos, the detail beneath that 4.3% CPI print matters. Higher essential costs reduce what is left for fashion, electronics, gaming and holidays, so comments on volumes and discounting in upcoming trading updates will be important cues for this rate sensitive corner of the market.

How To Find Stocks That Fit Your Strategy

With the RBA cash rate still at 4.6% and inflation at 4.3%, income focused investors can start with this list of 4 dividend fortresses to see which payouts look more resilient.

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