Twist Bioscience (TWST) Could Be 2% Below Fair Value After Raised Outlook

Twist Bioscience (TWST) moved back into focus after reporting revenue that topped its own expectations and lifting its full year outlook, supported by fresh AI driven drug discovery partnerships with pharmaceutical customers.

That enthusiasm is now showing up in the chart, with Twist Bioscience’s share price up 10.05% in the last session and 12.02% over the past week, even after a pullback of 12.57% over 30 days. At the same time, a 393.52% year to date share price return and a three year total shareholder return above 9x suggest momentum has been building rather than fading.

Scan 34 healthcare AI stocks to find other AI driven healthcare plays riding the same kind of momentum that recently put Twist Bioscience back on investors' radar.

After a near 4x year-to-date run, Twist Bioscience now trades only slightly below the average analyst target and at a large discount to one intrinsic value estimate. Where does that leave fair value?

Most Popular Narrative: 2% Undervalued

Twist Bioscience last closed at $159.85, while the most followed narrative pins fair value near $163.67. The gap is small but meaningful for anyone trying to judge how much is already priced in.

Diversification across multiple end markets and geographies, coupled with strong underlying industry trends like AI-driven drug discovery and global genomics market expansion, provides resilience against market cycles and supports steady, long-term revenue and profit growth.

See why 24 investors see Twist Bioscience as 2% undervalued.

Based on that framework, the narrative rests on Twist Bioscience turning today’s $431.8m of synthetic DNA product revenue and current losses of $136.7m into a much larger and more profitable business over time, supported by tools for pharma, diagnostics, and research customers across the Americas, EMEA, and APAC.

Those projections use a 7.46% discount rate and assume revenue growth near 20% alongside a profit margin that moves from current losses toward a positive level closer to the broader US biotech space. This set of assumptions leads to the analyst-derived fair value of about $163.67 per share.

The same storyline also accepts that this path is not guaranteed, since Twist Bioscience is still unprofitable, is expected to remain loss-making over the next three years, carries a high P/S ratio relative to peers, and has concentrated NGS revenue with its top 10 customers. These factors leave little room for execution missteps at today’s valuation.

For readers, the key question is whether those long-term assumptions around AI supported drug discovery demand, margin improvement, and wider customer adoption feel realistic enough to justify a fair value that sits only slightly above the current share price.

Result: Fair Value of $163.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the story can change quickly if Twist Bioscience’s concentrated NGS customer base weakens, or if ongoing losses force another equity raise that dilutes existing holders.

Find out about the key risks to this Twist Bioscience narrative.

Another View: What Twist Bioscience’s P/S Ratio Is Saying

While the analyst narrative lands on a fair value of $163.67 with an undervalued tag, the P/S lens paints a tougher picture. Twist Bioscience trades on a P/S of 23.2x, compared with 11.3x for the US biotech group and a fair ratio of 7x. This points to rich expectations baked into the price. How comfortable are you paying more than triple that fair ratio for a business still working toward profitability?

See what the numbers say about this price in our valuation breakdown, starting with the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Opinions are mixed on whether Twist Bioscience looks expensive or simply fully valued today. Act quickly, review the data, and then consider both the potential upside and the red flags in the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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