Komo: Target price of HK$8.7 for “increase in holdings” rating for ICBC (01398)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report stating that it adjusted the ICBC (01398) rating from “unrated” to “increased holdings” and gave a target price of HK$8.7. The bank predicts that ICBC's profit will increase by 3.9%, 4.3% and 4.5% respectively from 2026 to 2028. J.P. Morgan said that records for the past ten years show that ICBC's earnings per share and dividends fluctuate below the industry average. Compared with its peers, ICBC's downside risk due to the tariff war is lower. If capital injections occur, the risk of dilution of its shares is also lower than that of its peers.

The bank believes that in the medium term, dividends are the main factor supporting ICBC's performance. ICBC can release provisions to offset potential negative factors such as additional asymmetric interest rate cuts, refinancing mortgages at lower interest rates, or rising non-performing loan formation rates, so there is limited room for downside dividends.