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Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Gains An AI Payments Identity Angle As Fair Value Stays In View

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) moved into focus after its collaboration with Proof highlighted how USDC payments and verified digital identity could work together in AI agent transactions, using the x401 and x402 protocols.

Circle Internet Group’s recent AI identity collaboration lands against a mixed trading backdrop, with the shares closing at US$81.58 after a 1-day share price return of 2.18% but a 7-day share price return that declined 5% and a 30-day share price return that fell 8.34%.

Over the past quarter, momentum has been stronger, with a 90-day share price return of 32.95%. However, the year-to-date share price return is modestly lower by 2.26%, and the 1-year total shareholder return is down 40.06%, showing that recent gains follow a much tougher stretch for longer term holders.

News flow has been busy in October, from the Proof partnership on x401 and x402 at Money20/20 to Mizuho’s warnings that AI personal assistants could pull users away from USDC and reduce reserve revenue, and to ARK Invest adding roughly US$5.2 million of Circle Internet Group stock through its ARK Next Generation Internet ETF.

Scan other AI and payments plays facing similar crosswinds with our curated list of 39 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash.

Circle Internet Group has rebounded sharply over the past 3 months while longer term holders are still nursing large declines. The key issue now is whether that move already reflects the value on offer or if it leaves meaningful upside in the current valuation.

Most Popular Narrative: 24% Undervalued

Circle Internet Group’s most followed valuation narrative puts fair value at $106.98 versus the last close at $81.58. This frames the recent rebound as still leaving a valuation gap on this view.

Launch and commercialization of Arc as an enterprise grade economic operating system with a potential native token and participation from major institutions such as BlackRock, HSBC and Visa can add new high margin infrastructure revenue streams and deepen USDC network effects, supporting long term EBITDA margin expansion.

See why 60 investors see Circle Internet Group as 24% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $106.98 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the optimistic Circle Internet Group thesis relies heavily on reserve income driven by USDC and assumes regulators do not impose tighter rules that reduce partner economics.

Find out about the key risks to this Circle Internet Group narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed sentiment runs through Circle Internet Group’s story, with both clear risks and real upside drivers in play. Put those signals in context by reviewing the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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