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Tieto (HLSE:TIETO) Stock Faces Q3 Earnings Pressure From Revenue Slide

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Tieto closed today at €18.90, roughly flat over the past week, even as fresh Q3 2026 figures landed with a mixed message. The headline is clear. Revenue came in at €397m while basic earnings per share dropped to €0.37 from €0.73 in Q2, as the company leaned hard into restructuring its IT services portfolio.

In the short term, that profit squeeze explains the muted share reaction. Over a longer horizon, investors are weighing those thinner quarterly earnings against a P/E of 9.2x and a discounted valuation compared with both peers and a recent DCF estimate.

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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

  • Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): €397.0m vs. €454.2m (fell 12.6%)
  • Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): €40.8m vs. €34.9m (rose 17.0%)
  • Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): €0.37 vs. €0.29 (increased 24.3%)
  • Earnings from Discontinued Operations (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): loss of €0.7m vs. loss of €104.3m (materially smaller loss)

Margins are up even as Tieto’s revenue keeps shrinking. Ask Charlie what makes Tieto’s 2027 growth outlook believable.

HLSE:TIETO Trailing 12-Month Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Oct 2026
HLSE:TIETO Trailing 12-Month Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Oct 2026

Tieto margin story hits targets while revenue sags

For the bullish view on Tieto Oyj to work, cost cuts and portfolio clean up need to translate into structurally better profitability.

"The reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITA margin target of 14.8% to 15.8%, combined with H1 2026 profitability already at 14.8% and ongoing delivery of the €130 million cost program, creates room for Tieto Oyj to convert a structurally lower cost base into higher net margins than many investors currently assume."

Q3 puts a clear tick next to that ambition. Group adjusted EBITA margin reached 18.0%, full year guidance was raised to 15.5% to 16.0%, and €125m of the €130m savings are already in place, even as organic revenue declined 11%.

One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says Tieto Oyj should trade.

Bear case on Tieto revenue hits fresh milestones

Bearish investors worry that Tieto Oyj’s cost saves and AI push will not offset softer demand and shrinking legacy work.

"Although Tieto Oyj is investing in AI capabilities and broad employee upskilling, the 5% organic revenue decline in Q2 2026 and weaker software volumes suggest that AI enabled offerings may not convert into sufficient new demand."

The latest quarter deepens that concern. Group organic revenue fell 11% in Q3, with Tech Consulting and Banktech both weak and 2026 organic growth guidance cut again to a decline of 6% to 5%. Strong adjusted EBITA margins rely heavily on a €130m cost program, while top line trends still point in the wrong direction.

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