Crude Defends $100.60 Again Ahead of Israel’s Vote as Nat Gas Bounces Off Its Low

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Cross Asset Note

Crude is holding near its highs as diplomacy picks up ahead of a stretch of major votes. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey met in Tehran on Monday and agreed to more talks, and Iran signaled flexibility on a proposal to reopen Hormuz within seven days in exchange for lifting US restrictions. Russia’s president meets Iran’s president and Qatar’s emir in Moscow today. Risk remains elevated, though. Hezbollah is reported to be preparing for a new war with Iranian funding, and Saudi defenses intercepted Houthi drones and ballistic missiles aimed at the kingdom over the weekend. Brent is up more than 90% this year. Its prompt spread has widened to nearly $5 from under $4 a week ago, a sign that near-term supply is tightening even as Gulf crude flows sit near prewar levels. This week is packed with event risk: Israel votes today, the Fed decides Wednesday after raising rates last month for the first time since 2023, and the US midterms follow on November 3, with renewed strikes on Iran widely expected after that vote. US gasoline prices have moved above the prior administration’s average, keeping energy costs at the center of the campaign. In nat gas, the front month fell to its lowest settlement since April on Monday before recovering much of its early loss, as forecasts turned significantly warmer and expectations built for a very mild El Niño winter. Above-normal temperatures are now expected across the eastern two-thirds of the country through November 9, and hedge funds hold their largest short position in data going back to 2013. November expires Wednesday, and thin expiration trading may have exaggerated Monday’s early drop. EQT agreed to buy Range Resources, creating the largest US gas producer. For clients, crude is holding a breakout through a week of elections and a Fed decision, which argues for defined risk on both sides rather than chasing. In nat gas, record short positioning against a market that keeps bouncing off its lows is the kind of setup where short-covering rallies can be sharp, even if the weather keeps the trend pointed lower.

CRUDE OIL (December, CLEZ26)

Current Price: $101.99, up $0.23 (0.23%) | Session high $102.82, low $100.60

Chart Setup
December pulled back $1.51 Monday to settle at $101.76, holding above the $101.40 breakout point. This morning’s dip found buyers at $100.60, the same spot as Monday’s low, so two sessions in a row have defended that area above the channel edge near $100.30. Price has since pushed to $102.82, just above Monday’s high. Friday’s settle at $103.27 and the $103.90 high of the move are the next marks overhead. December sits about $7.60 above the rising 20 day at $94.36, with the 50 day climbing at $89.84.

Key Levels Above

• $103.90 (Friday’s high, high of the move)
• $103.27 (Friday settle)
• $102.82 (today’s high)
• $102.63 (Monday high)

Current Price: $101.99

Key Levels Below

• $101.76 (Monday settle)
• $101.40 (breakout point, April front-month high)
• $100.60 (Monday and today’s low)
• $100.30 (upper edge of the channel)
• $99.47 (last Thursday’s settle)

Bias
The $101.40 breakout point is the level to manage against. A settlement above it keeps last week’s breakout intact, and a settlement through $103.27 would put the $103.90 high back in reach. A settlement below the channel edge near $100.30 would turn the breakout into a failed move and open $99.47. For sidelined traders, the double test of $100.60 gives a defined-risk entry between there and $101.40, with a stop under $100.30. Buying near $103 into today’s Israeli vote leaves little room for error.

NATURAL GAS (December, NGEZ26)

Current Price: $3.04, up $0.02 (0.53%) | Session high $3.07, low $3.03

Chart Setup
Monday’s drop to a new contract low of $2.93 didn’t hold. December recovered most of the loss to settle at $3.02, leaving a long lower tail that shows buyers defending the lows. This morning has added a little follow-through, with a high of $3.07, just above Friday’s $3.05 settle. All four averages remain overhead, with the 20 day at $3.35 still below a falling 50 day at $3.43. The prior contract low at $3.10 and Friday’s $3.16 high are the first resistance points a bounce would need to clear.

Key Levels Above

• $3.24 (early October low, broken last week)
• $3.16 (Friday high)
• $3.10 (prior contract low)
• $3.07 (today’s high)
• $3.05 (Friday settle)

Current Price: $3.04

Key Levels Below

• $3.03 (today’s low, with Monday’s settle at $3.02)
• $2.93 (Monday low, contract low)

Bias
Today’s $3.07 high is the level to manage against. A settlement above it would be December’s first higher close since mid-October, confirming Monday’s reversal and opening $3.10 and then $3.16. A settlement below $2.93 would extend the selloff into new contract lows with no chart reference underneath. With funds holding a record short, bounces like Monday’s can turn sharp. Sidelined buyers have defined risk with a stop under $2.93, while sellers may get a better entry on a rally into $3.16 to $3.24 than at the lows.

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