Visa Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Ryan McInerney Say?
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday, with prediction- market traders expecting an earnings beat and repeated discussion of stablecoins.
On Polymarket, traders give Visa a 77% chance of reporting adjusted earnings above $3.50 per share, roughly 2% above analysts’ $3.43 consensus. Visa has beaten earnings estimates in each of its last four quarters.
Analysts expect revenue of $12.09 billion, up nearly 13% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, Kalshi traders are betting on which words CEO Ryan McInerney and his team will say during the 5 p.m. ET earnings call.
What Kalshi Predicts Visa Will Say
“Stablecoin / Stable Coin” leads at 97%, on a contract requiring at least three mentions.
On October 15, Visa announced that payment companies could use USDC, a dollar-backed stablecoin, to fund international payments in advance. This process, known as prefunding, can happen around the clock instead of waiting for traditional bank transfers.
Visa’s stablecoin settlement volume has surpassed a $20 billion annualized run rate, more than 15 times its level a year earlier. That measures payments settled, not Visa revenue.
“International” follows at 89%, also requiring three mentions. Cross-border volumes excluding intra-European transactions grew 12% last quarter.
“Blockchain” trades at 83%, while “Tokenization” sits at 81%. Visa uses blockchain for stablecoin settlement, while its established tokenization technology protects card details. More than half of Visa’s e-commerce transactions are already tokenized.
“Hyperscaler” trades at 80%. McInerney described Visa as the world’s leading “hyperscaler of payments” last quarter, borrowing a term associated with cloud computing.
What Kalshi Predicts Visa Will Skip
“Regulation / Regulatory” trades at 46%, despite an ongoing U.S. antitrust lawsuit over Visa’s debit-card business.
On Monday, law firms filed proposed UK class actions seeking up to £5 billion from Visa and Mastercard Inc. (NYSE:MA) over allegedly excessive card fees. Both companies dispute the allegations.
“Inyo” sits at 47%, despite Inyo Global becoming the first enabler of Visa’s commercial stablecoin prefunding service.
Traders are almost certain management will repeatedly discuss stablecoins, but less than half expect it to name the partner behind the launch.
“M&A / Merger” trades at just 16%. Axios reported last week that Visa was in talks to acquire crypto infrastructure company Fireblocks for approximately $2.5 billion, but Fireblocks denied the report.
Reading the Board
Traders expect Visa to emphasize payment technology, while investors will also be watching costs and fiscal 2027 guidance.
Last quarter, adjusted operating expenses rose 17%, outpacing revenue growth of 14%. Visa expects expense growth to slow to low double digits this quarter.
Visa announced plans in July to cut about 2,600 jobs, primarily in technology and product development. Management said the savings would help fund investments in stablecoins and AI-powered commerce.
Options traders are pricing in a 3.24% post-earnings move, equivalent to approximately $24.8 billion in market value, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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