CITIC Construction Investment: Physical AI Development Speeds Up, Ship Orders Continue to Prosper

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying, (1) Shipping: Ship prices have been rising sequentially for 6 consecutive months, and tanker orders are expected to remain high throughout the year. Bulk carrier orders may be relayed as the main line of the next phase of the boom, and the current boom cycle continues. (2) Liquid cooling: GTC defines a new standard for liquid cooling delivery, prefabricated modular and medium temperature water opens up space for value revaluation. (3) Semiconductor equipment: Storage IPOs continue to be promoted, order demand continues to be strong, and overseas sales are gradually opening up space. (4) Humanoid robots: OpenAI has entered the robotics circuit. Tesla is actively promoting mass production and is optimistic about the physical AI market. (5) AIDC power generation equipment: core components limit the delivery of combustion engines, and the gap between supply and demand in the industry continues. (6) Construction machinery: Domestic and foreign sales of excavators resonated upward in September, focusing on year-end valuation changes and whether overseas demand exceeded expectations.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Humanoid robots: OpenAI enters the robotics circuit. Tesla actively promotes mass production and accelerates the development of physical AI. The amazing effects of GPT-6 are expected to accelerate the development of the core of the industry, and the entry of OpenAI into the market and the promotion of Tesla mass production will further clarify industry trends. In the next 1-2 months, Tesla is expected to release videos of Optimus non-pre-programmed tasks to show the robot's capabilities. Robotics companies actively promote multi-dimensional capacity building such as the “brain,” “cerebellum,” and “body.” As the level of generalization of robots increases, it is expected that their implementation scenarios will expand further. Physical AI is the next wave of artificial intelligence. Robots are one of the best physical carriers of AI. Domestic and international catalysts are expected to continue, so it is recommended to focus on high-quality links.

AIDC power generation equipment: core components limit the delivery of combustion engines, and the gap between supply and demand in the industry continues. This week, Meta raised the lower limit of the 2026 capital expenditure guideline from 130 billion US dollars to 135 billion US dollars, and the demand for investment in computing power infrastructure continues. PJM pointed out that there is a mismatch between the growth in data center loads and the progress of new power supplies and power grid construction, and the construction demand for stable and adjustable power supplies is further highlighted. Furthermore, BNEF expects the announced expansion plan to increase global combustion engine production capacity by more than 50% by 2030, and the Big Three will contribute 28 GW of the 35 GW additional production capacity, but upstream processes such as single crystal blades, forgings, special alloys, and generators will still limit delivery. On the domestic side, the first 40MW class CGT40 gas engine generator set independently developed by 703 companies, undertook system integration and general contract supply, was connected to the grid, accumulating field operation data and engineering experience for subsequent batch promotion of domestic models. The bank's view: Global gas engine orders have maintained a boom, and the scale of gas power generation under construction in the US and the share of AIDC-related projects have increased at the same time. Domestic combustion engines are expected to gain overseas market share faster with shorter delivery cycles, higher cost performance, and continuously enhanced product competitiveness.

Construction machinery: Domestic and foreign sales of excavators continued to resonate upward in September, and the sector will usher in quarterly improvements. In September 2026, 2,717 excavators of various types were sold, an increase of 14.4% over the previous year. Among them: domestic sales volume was 9911 units (including 218 electric excavators), up 7.16% year on year; 12,806 units were exported (including 65 electric excavators), up 20.7% year on year. Growth is expected to continue in the future. Exports maintained strong performance. They were not disturbed by the international situation, changes in tariffs, or expectations of interest rate hikes. China's construction machinery growth trend is still maintained. The domestic landscape has improved, and leading companies have begun to raise prices. Companies such as Sany, Xugong, Liugong, and Shantui announced price increases for products such as excavators and cranes, reflecting the slowdown in the price war in the industry since the beginning of the year and the shift to healthy development in the industry.

Semiconductor equipment: The global business cycle continues to be confirmed, and attention is being paid to the offshore process. The SEMI update forecasts that semiconductor equipment will continue to grow over the next 3 years. SEMI expects global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to reach a record high of US$165.9 billion in 2026, +23.2% year over year. The growth momentum is expected to continue until 2028, and total equipment sales are expected to reach a record $229.5 billion, achieving five consecutive years of growth. TSMC raised its 26-year capital expenditure. TSMC expects capital expenditure of 60 billion to 64 billion US dollars for the full year of 2026. The previous estimate was 52 billion to 56 billion US dollars, an increase of 8 billion US dollars, or about 15%. ASML's overall performance comprehensively surpassed the market and the company's early guidance. The total quarterly net sales volume was 9.326 billion euros, +21% year over month, significantly exceeding the company's previous guidance of 84-9 billion euros and the market's consensus forecast of 8.85 billion euros. The annual performance target was raised for the second time in the year. The AI computing power+storage recovery both drove the boom in the industry, and the profit structure continued to be optimized. The world's semiconductor equipment components are experiencing a wave of price increases throughout the entire chain, which is rare in history. The pricing power in the semiconductor industry chain is shifting structurally from chip terminals to equipment and components. Parts companies are small in scale and account for a high proportion of fixed costs, and price increases directly translate into profits; at the same time, the production line expansion cycle lasts 12-18 months, and supply elasticity is the worst. Pay attention to domestic substitution demands and price increase logic brought about by extended delivery times from overseas suppliers such as valve pipelines, ceramic parts, RF power supplies, and GAS BOX.

Climate control equipment: GTC defines a new standard for liquid cooling delivery, prefabricated modular and medium temperature water opens up space for revaluation. On October 21, the Berlin GTC defined liquid cooling from accessories as key manufacturing parts, and the basis for judging companies in the liquid cooling supply chain was further extended to design, manufacturing, and cost. The first is the design side: the entire new-generation platform is fully liquid-cooled, the cabinet removes the fan, and the maximum power consumption of a single chip is raised to 2,300 watts. The cooling coverage rate is increased from about 80% to 100%. The cold plate, manifold, confluence, and optical module cover are then restructured, and the cooling is changed from cabinet support to platform-level definition. Second, the manufacturing side: The modular AI factory places more emphasis on the modular prefabrication capability of liquid-cooled components. The 7 liquid-cooled cabinets, about 17-kilometer cables, and 45-degree waterways were pre-installed in the factory and compression verification was completed. The on-site deployment was reduced from about 6 months to as fast as 14 days. The deliverables changed from components to pre-assembled modules, and the assessment items moved from plan design to batch consistency, factory testing and global delivery radius. The third is the cost side: The 45℃ medium temperature water solution is already engineering feasible. Most climates can reduce the use of chillers and rely on outdoor dry coolers to exhaust heat. The 2 gigawatt scale estimates save 54 million liters of water per day. The water restrictions on data center site selection have begun to weaken, and the primary side is reflected in structural changes. The bank determined that with the further increase in the value of liquid cooling in a single cabinet and the maturity of the modular prefabricated square cabin scheme, it will trigger full-chain reverification and order restacking. Manufacturers with consistent mass production, factory verification and overseas delivery capabilities will take the lead in delivering results. The fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2027 is a verification window, and continues to be optimistic about the liquid cooling sector allocation value.

Risk warning:

(1) Risk of domestic macroeconomic fluctuations: Machinery is a typical midstream capital goods industry. It is closely related to macroeconomic fluctuations. If there is a major shift in domestic macroeconomic policies, it will inevitably affect the overall demand of the machinery industry.

(2) Risk of fluctuations in overseas markets: It is impossible for Chinese companies to go overseas smoothly. The future journey is bound to have all kinds of frictions. Whether it is a phased episode or a new trend is forming, careful judgment is needed.

(3) The risk that downstream production expansion falls short of expectations: If the downstream industry's expansion falls short of expectations, the corresponding demand for equipment will decline, which will adversely affect the orders, performance, etc. of companies in the industry.