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Rocket Lab (RKLB) Launches HawkEye Mission Following Valuation Questions Around Its Growth Story

Simply Wall St · 23h ago

Rocket Lab (RKLB) just completed another Electron mission for HawkEye 360, lifting three HAWK satellites into a 520 km low Earth orbit from New Zealand on October 23, 2026.

Rocket Lab’s latest HawkEye 360 mission lands against a choppy trading backdrop, with the stock closing at US$53.82 after a 1-day share price return of 2.32% and a 7-day gain of 4.79% that partly follows headlines around Neutron delays, the Iridium deal and a growing backlog. Despite this recent uptick, momentum has softened in the near term. The 30-day share price return is down 27.22% and the year-to-date share price return is down 29.17%, even though the 3-year total shareholder return is more than 10x and the 5-year total shareholder return is 2.77x. This keeps the longer term story very different from the recent pullback.

Scan the pure-play space theme beyond Rocket Lab by zeroing in on 21 high quality undiscovered gems that are riding similar contract pipelines and long dated backlogs.

Rocket Lab now trades at a steep discount to both published fair value estimates and analyst targets after the Neutron reset and Iridium headlines. Is that gap just fear, or a fair price for the execution risk ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 37% Undervalued

Rocket Lab’s most followed valuation storyline pegs fair value at $85.04 per share, well above the recent $53.82 close, which puts a spotlight on what might be driving that gap.

Rocket Lab is mid-transformation from a small-launch specialist into a vertically integrated space and defense prime, with Space Systems now ~67% of revenue and growing fastest.

A $1.85b backlog (+73% YoY) anchored by the $816m SDA Tranche 3 award provides multi-year revenue visibility that the current trailing P/S of ~72x does not yet fully reflect.

See why 119 investors see Rocket Lab as 37% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $85.04 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the Rocket Lab narrative can break if Neutron suffers further delays or if large defense contracts convert more slowly than expected, which could stretch timelines and sentiment.

Find out about the key risks to this Rocket Lab narrative.

Another View: What Rocket Lab’s P/S Ratio Signals

Rocket Lab screens very differently when you swap fair value narratives for simple market ratios. The stock trades on a P/S of 41.9x, compared with 3.8x for the wider US Aerospace & Defense group and 6.6x for peers. Against a fair ratio of 10.9x, that gap points to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools.

For anyone weighing that premium against the growth story, the numbers behind it are unpacked in more detail in the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..

NasdaqGS:RKLB P/S Ratio as at Oct 2026
NasdaqGS:RKLB P/S Ratio as at Oct 2026

Next Steps

If the mixed sentiment around Rocket Lab leaves you unsure, move quickly and test the story against the underlying data for yourself. To weigh both the upside and the red flags in one place, go straight to the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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If Rocket Lab has your attention, do not stop here. The real edge comes from comparing it with other opportunities that fit your goals.