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NextNav (NN) Draws SpaceX Backing, Is The Stock Cheap?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

NextNav (NN) drew fresh attention after its shares rose 12% when SpaceX supported including the lower 900 MHz spectrum band in the FCC’s satellite to mobile expansion, highlighting the value of NextNav’s licenses.

The 12% intraday jump slots into a mixed picture for NextNav. The 1-day share price return of 9.45% and 7-day gain of 5.33% follow a much tougher stretch that left the 30-day share price return down 29.90% and the year-to-date move lower by 37.85%.

For long term holders, the story looks very different, with a 3-year total shareholder return of 125.50% alongside a decline of 21.98% over the past year. This suggests momentum has recently been under pressure and is now reacting sharply to fresh spectrum news.

Spot 42 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks that could also benefit if demand for spectrum rich, GPS-like infrastructure builds around moves such as NextNav’s 900 MHz exposure.

Bulls see NextNav as a scarce spectrum play that the market still underprices. Bears see a tiny revenue base and heavy losses. Which side do the current valuation markers really lean toward?

Most Popular Narrative: 70% Undervalued

Against a last close of $10.08, the most followed narrative on NextNav anchors around a fair value of $33.67, so the gap between story and screen price is wide and rooted in how its spectrum and 3D positioning assets might eventually be commercialized.

Progress at the FCC toward an NPRM on 5G based 3D PNT in the lower 900 megahertz band, combined with a congressional push to free more spectrum, sets the stage for commercial rights that can unlock new service revenues and crystallize spectrum value on the balance sheet, supporting higher earnings and asset valuations.

See why 4 investors see NextNav as 70% undervalued.

The fair value in that narrative uses an 8.79% discount rate and still builds in analysts’ expectation that revenue trends decline over the next few years rather than accelerate. That tension between a very small current top line of about $4m and a $1.7b market value means a lot of the story rests on confidence that lower 900 MHz spectrum and partnerships eventually justify the price tag.

Analysts backing this framework also lean on factors such as the Telesaurus spectrum acquisition, a balance sheet that does not rely on customer deposits, and a vision of terrestrial PNT complementing GPS for public safety and telecom customers. At the same time, they acknowledge sizeable risks around FCC timing, competitive alternatives in low band spectrum, and the need to turn pilots with carriers and equipment vendors into broad commercial rollouts.

Given that analysts trim and update the $33.67 figure as assumptions move, any reader weighing NextNav against other software or spectrum exposed stocks can treat that number as one scenario rather than a fixed outcome, then stress test it against personal views on regulation, adoption and dilution risk.

Result: Fair Value of $33.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the whole NextNav narrative frays if FCC timelines slip or rival low band options win key deals, which could leave spectrum and 3D PNT underused for longer.

Find out about the key risks to this NextNav narrative.

Next Steps

If the split between bulls and bears on NextNav feels sharp, use that tension as a prompt to move quickly and evaluate the data yourself, starting with its 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond NextNav?

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