Australian Stock Market Today: ASX Futures Flat As Sticky US Inflation Tempers Risk Appetite

The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Monday, 26 Oct 2026

Australian shares are set for a cautious open, with sentiment anchored to stubborn US inflation expectations rather than local headlines. The tone leans guarded rather than bullish as investors weigh what that means for global interest rates.

The University of Michigan year ahead inflation outlook sits at 4.7% for October, well above typical central bank targets. Solid US services PMI readings point to ongoing demand. Taken together, those figures suggest that US policy makers may have limited room to ease settings quickly.

When inflation expectations hold near 5%, investors usually assume policy rates may need to stay restrictive for longer. That keeps global borrowing costs elevated, which can pressure equity valuations and complicate earnings planning for highly geared Australian businesses.

The key issue is whether upcoming US data on growth and spending confirms this sticky inflation picture or shows any cooling. If inflation readings soften, the current rate path narrative weakens. If they do not, equity risk premiums may need to adjust higher.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

Ingenia Communities Group is back in focus after receiving an unsolicited, non binding cash proposal from AVID at up to A$5.40 per stapled security. The offer hinges on due diligence, regulatory approvals and unwinding an existing scheme with Peet. Key items to watch include the six week exclusivity window, any revised terms from Peet and board commentary around value and conditions.

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

Electro Optic Systems Holdings flagged an order book above A$1.4b, supported by a conditional counterdrone defence contract in Kuwait worth about £370 million and a letter of intent from the Netherlands Ministry of Defence for its Apollo laser weapon technology. Focus now turns to contract finalisation, timing of cash receipts and how much of the pipeline converts into firm revenue.

Evolution Mining (EVN)

Evolution Mining cleared a key hurdle on the Carnaby Resources acquisition after scheme meeting approval, with 95.42% of votes cast in favour. Court sign off is scheduled for 29 October 2026, with Carnaby expected to delist on 11 November if the timetable holds. Investors will be tracking final court orders, integration milestones and the associated Glencore subscription.

Top Movers

• Zip Co (ASX:ZIP) jumped 10.96% after announcing a nationwide in store expansion of its Best Buy US partnership.
• Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE) gained 7.75% after agreeing to buy the remaining 20% of its BYD Retail joint venture.
• Minerals 260 (ASX:MI6) climbed 7.58% following completion of a A$1.98m follow on equity offering at A$0.88 a share.

Top Losers

• Brightstar Resources (ASX:BTR) declined 15.67% after investors reacted to proposed constitutional changes related to virtual shareholder meetings.
• Chrysos (ASX:C79) fell 4.20% as traders adjusted positions ahead of the upcoming November Annual General Meeting.
• Cochlear (ASX:COH) slipped 3.40% following AGM commentary on challenging market conditions and profit outcomes relative to earlier expectations.

On The Radar

Australian inflation data and a heavy run of local trading updates over the next few days line up against a major US Federal Reserve decision, keeping interest rate expectations front of mind for ASX investors.

• Australia CPI Sep (monthly and trimmed mean), Wed 28 Oct. Prints against previous 0.4% headline and 3.6% trimmed mean consensus, with any upside surprise likely to reinforce expectations for tighter RBA policy and put upward pressure on borrowing costs and the A$.
• RBA Senate appearance, Wed 28 Oct. Comments around inflation tracking, wage trends and the current cash rate corridor may shape views on how long restrictive policy rates persist and influence rate sensitive sectors such as housing and discretionary retail.
• Perseus Mining Q1 2027 results, Tue 27 Oct. Quarterly numbers arrive before the local open at 7:30 AM E. Australia time, and production volumes plus unit costs will matter most for how investors frame cash generation in the current gold price environment.
• IGO Q1 2027 results, Thu 29 Oct. Revenue and margin disclosure from IGO’s battery materials operations will give holders a read on earnings sensitivity to current lithium and nickel pricing, which often spills over into sentiment across the wider resources complex.
• US Fed interest rate decision, Wed 28 Oct. Markets line up around a 4.0% policy rate and any shift in guidance on inflation or future moves can affect US yields, which in turn drive A$ direction and valuations for globally exposed ASX firms.

Sector & Industry Watch

Materials and Metals and Mining: Miners slide despite busy project news

Materials and Metals and Mining have both pulled back over the past week and month, even though 1 year returns remain slightly positive. The retreat is arriving alongside a wave of updates from Wildcat Resources, Western Mines Group, Evolution Mining and others that highlight long term project potential but also the funding and timing questions investors are weighing.

If you hold iron ore, gold or battery metal exposure, the key swing factor is Wednesday’s Australia CPI and trimmed mean CPI. Those numbers can influence rate expectations, discount rates and appetite for capital heavy resource developments listed on the ASX.

Financials and Banks: Lenders rally as rate debate builds

Financials have moved higher over the past week, with Banks climbing even further on a 7 day and 30 day view while 1 year returns are close to flat. Stronger moves in lenders such as Zip Co show how quickly rate expectations and household spending trends can shift sentiment toward the sector.

If your portfolio includes the big four banks or other financial stocks, focus on Wednesday’s Australia CPI and core inflation read. That release feeds into RBA expectations and can shape how investors think about lending margins and the risk of more borrowers falling behind.

Real Estate: A REITs lift on deal activity and stabilising rates

Real Estate is modestly higher over the past week and month, although returns are still weaker on a year to date and 1 year view. The takeover proposal for Ingenia Communities and quarterly reports from groups such as International Equities and Mustera Property show that capital is still available, yet higher funding costs remain a clear headwind.

If you rely on listed property for income, the crucial local cue is Australia’s CPI and trimmed mean CPI on Wednesday. Any surprise on underlying inflation can influence how long borrowing costs stay elevated and what investors are willing to pay for REIT cash flows.

Consumer Discretionary: Rate sensitive spending finds some support

Consumer Discretionary has firmed over the past week and month after a softer year to date and 1 year picture. Updates from Nick Scali, Eagers Automotive and Guzman y Gomez point to pockets of demand where operators are still finding customers prepared to spend on furniture, vehicles and dining out despite higher mortgages and rents.

If you own retailers or auto related exposure, pay attention to Wednesday’s CPI breakdown, especially housing and services. That detail helps investors judge how much disposable income households have left for optional purchases that drive this sector.

Tech and Semiconductors: Growth sectors still under pressure

Tech and Semiconductors remain among the weakest parts of the AU Market, with both sectors down heavily over the past year and falling again over the past 7 and 30 days. Quarterly reports from Dubber, Pureprofile and Adveritas show revenue progress and new products, yet the broader move underlines how sensitive these groups are to funding conditions and long dated earnings assumptions.

If your holdings lean toward Australian technology or chip related stocks, the main external cue is the Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday night local time. Any change in how the Fed talks about inflation and future policy can move long term bond yields, which directly affects how investors value future cash flows in these sectors.

Identify The Next Market Leaders

With Australian CPI and the Fed decision set to keep rate pressure in focus, it can help to start with this list of 6 resilient stocks with low risk scores that aim to hold up if borrowing costs stay higher for longer.

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