Revenue Beat: Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 9.6% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
It's been a good week for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (BMV:ASURB) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.8% to Mex$464. Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V beat revenue expectations by 9.6%, at Mex$10b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at Mex$7.20, some 4.4% short of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V's 14 analysts is for revenues of Mex$47.0b in 2027. This reflects a notable 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 22% to Mex$40.57. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of Mex$45.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$40.17 in 2027. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a modest lift to to revenue forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of Mex$600, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V's valuation in the near term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V at Mex$753 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$468. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$600, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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