NCAB Group (OM:NCAB) Stock Price Faces A Q3 Results Reality Check

NCAB Group walked into this Q3 2026 print with its stock at SEK81.2 after a tough month that left the share price down about 9%. Then the quarter hit. Net sales landed at SEK1,463.7m with net profit of SEK129.7m, both well ahead of where the business sat just a few quarters ago.

Short term traders may fixate on the recent share weakness. Longer term investors will likely focus on the surge in order intake and the stronger EBITA margin, and on what that means for NCAB Group’s multiyear cash generation and the current valuation gap to its DCF fair value estimate.

Impressed by NCAB Group’s stronger margins and cash generation angle, but uneasy about relying on a single stock to express that theme? Put this quarter in context against a wider set of resilient operators using our list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks (204 results)

Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): SEK 1,463.7m vs. SEK 949.3m (up about 54%)
• Net Income (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): SEK 129.7m vs. SEK 60.9m (up about 113%)
• Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): SEK 0.69 vs. SEK 0.33 (up about 113%)
• EBITA Margin (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): 14.4% vs. 11.6% (indicating higher profitability per krona of sales)

Earnings grab the headlines, but investors who care about what a business is really worth tend to watch the cash coming in and out of the firm over time. NCAB Group’s reported profit is one thing; its cash generation pattern is another.

Looking at NCAB Group’s cash flows alone and mapping them into a discounted cash flow framework, the stock could be a clear 20% undervalued.

NCAB margin resilience thesis under real stress

The bullish story says NCAB Group can lean on higher value work and pricing power to keep profitability steady even when conditions are rough.

"Expansion into advanced, high-margin PCB applications and successful cost pass-through are supporting resilience and robust profitability amid market pressures."

Q3 points in that direction. EBITA margin reached 14.4% with the 12 month gross margin hovering around 35%. Order intake rose very sharply and management linked roughly half of that uplift to higher prices, helped by tighter supply and short quotation windows. This supports the claim of pricing power in more complex PCB categories.

NCAB risk narrative vs current execution

The bear story warns that NCAB’s outsourced model and macro shocks could start to eat into profitability and operational control.

"The company relies solely on external manufacturing partners, lacking in-house production capacity, which exposes it to supply chain risks and limits operational control at a time when global onshoring/nearshoring trends threaten its Asia-centric sourcing model, increasing vulnerability to disruptions and margin compression."

Supply is clearly tight, with lead times around two quarters and AI related demand soaking up capacity. Yet Q3 EBITA margin held at 14.4% and gross margin stayed near the 35% band, while net debt fell to 1.2x. Margin compression and balance sheet strain have not materialised in these results.

That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for.

Hunt For Quiet Cash Engines

NCAB Group just showed how a single quarter can reset expectations around margins, orders, and debt. The real opportunity sits in spotting companies that could be undervalued before sentiment catches up.

• Company 1 - 45% below our estimate - uses a fast-ramping new plant and recycled metal sourcing to shift volumes and margins toward higher returning contracts.
• Company 2 - 24% below our estimate - ties cloud infrastructure, workplace subscriptions and AI tools together so enterprise customers gradually move core workflows onto one paid platform.
• Company 3 - 23% below our estimate - adds high-value healthcare seals and coffee-capsule components while restructuring plants so more revenue runs through a leaner cost base.

Three companies from the same screener. Open the full list of 192 companies trading below our fair value estimates →

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