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Commvault Systems (CVLT) Climbed, So What Is Behind The Attention Now?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Commvault Systems (CVLT) is back in focus after unveiling new data security and threat hunting tools for Microsoft 365, extending its cyber resiliency pitch into one of the largest enterprise software ecosystems.

Recent trading points to building momentum around Commvault Systems, with the share price at US$167.81 after a 1-day share price return of 2.61%, a 30-day share price return of 14.62%, and a year to date share price return of 35.13%. At the same time, the 3-year total shareholder return of 162.24% and 5-year total shareholder return of 174.65% show how materially different short term moves and long term compounding can look for investors tracking this cybersecurity story.

Scan how Commvault Systems fits into the wider cyber resilience trend by comparing it with a curated set of 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores that aim to balance growth potential with controlled downside.

Commvault Systems now trades slightly above the average analyst target, yet appears at a sizeable discount to some intrinsic value estimates. After this sharp run, is caution smart or is the stock mispriced?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.5% Overvalued

Commvault Systems closed at $167.81 compared with a narrative fair value estimate of $160.55, which frames the current enthusiasm as slightly ahead of that central view while still grounded in recurring data resilience demand and cash generation potential.

The current valuation implies that Commvault Systems is fairly valued with the market already pricing in its subscription ARR and free cash flow guidance together with planned share buybacks.

See why 16 investors see Commvault Systems as 5% overvalued.

Result: Fair Value of $160.55 (OVERVALUED)

Still, hardware and FX headwinds that already hit ARR by a few million dollars, along with an ongoing governance investigation, could quickly challenge that fair value narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Commvault Systems narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Pitches Commvault Systems as Undervalued

The market may see Commvault Systems as slightly ahead of analyst fair value, yet the SWS DCF model points in the opposite direction. On that cash flow view, CVLT at $167.81 trades about 34% below an estimated value of $253.84. Which roadmap do you trust more: earnings multiples or long term cash generation?

For a closer look at how that gap is built up from future cash flows and discount rates, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

CVLT Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2026
CVLT Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Commvault Systems for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 29 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed signals on Commvault Systems can feel messy, so move quickly, review the numbers for yourself, then weigh up the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Commvault Systems?

If Commvault Systems has sharpened your focus on quality, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with targeted screeners built to surface focused opportunities.