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CNX Resources (CNX) Nears Earnings, Is The Stock Still Cheap?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

CNX Resources (CNX) heads into its October 29 quarterly report with a puzzling setup. Wall Street models higher earnings on lower sales, while a negative Earnings ESP points to increasingly cautious expectations.

CNX Resources has picked up some short term momentum ahead of the October 29 release, with a 1 month share price return of 8.9% and a 7 day gain of 3.2%. Yet the year to date share price is still down 2%, while the 1 year total shareholder return sits at 9.1% and the 5 year total shareholder return is 133.7%. This mix suggests that recent trading is being driven less by a change in the long term story and more by investors repositioning around the earnings risk now embedded in expectations.

Scan for other energy names with similar pre earnings setups by running the 30 high quality undervalued stocks alongside CNX Resources before results hit the tape.

After a sharp short term rebound yet only a modest discount to analyst targets, CNX Resources now forces a timing call. Should investors lean into the current setup before earnings, or wait for volatility to reset the entry point as valuation comes into focus?

Most Popular Narrative: 5% Undervalued

CNX Resources closed at $35.73 against a narrative fair value of $37.55. This frames the current setup as modestly discounted while investors debate how durable the cash flow story really is.

Analysts expect CNX Resources to keep using its Appalachian gas portfolio, long-term hedges and projected 45Z and environmental credit monetization of about $90 million a year from 2027 to support resilient margins and cash generation.

The main thing that has to go right is that CNX Resources continues to execute on efficient Marcellus and Utica development while maintaining access to credit markets and tax credit buyers so that low carbon and environmental revenue streams actually convert into steady cash flow.

See why 5 investors see CNX Resources as 5% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $37.55 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the narrative around CNX Resources weakens quickly if the expected 45Z and environmental credits do not materialize or if large Appalachian power and data center projects quietly stall.

Find out about the key risks to this CNX Resources narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed signals like this can make CNX Resources difficult to interpret, so act promptly, review the underlying data, and weigh both the upside and the downside using the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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