WEBULL
WebtradeDownload

Is SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Below Fair Value After OpenAI Funding Reports?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

OpenAI’s reported plan to raise about $30b, with SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) among the investors approached, has pushed SoftBank’s AI exposure back into focus for anyone tracking the stock.

Over the past month the SoftBank Group share price has fallen 31.83%, including a 6.86% drop in the last session, as investors weigh fresh AI headlines against the group’s early redemption of €405.1m of 2.875% Senior Notes and other recent balance sheet moves. That short term pressure contrasts with a three year total shareholder return of 188.09% and a five year total shareholder return of 189.52%, suggesting long term holders have still seen very strong gains even as current momentum has cooled.

Scan how other AI focused plays are reacting to the same funding buzz by reviewing our curated list of 55 AI infrastructure stocks along with SoftBank Group.

SoftBank Group now trades well below both analyst targets and one intrinsic value estimate after a sharp pullback. Does that discount reflect opportunity, or a fair warning label on its AI heavy portfolio?

Most Popular Narrative: 45% Undervalued

SoftBank Group’s most followed valuation story pegs fair value at ¥7,782, which sits well above the last close of ¥4,305 and puts the spotlight firmly on whether its AI projects can justify that gap.

SB Energy’s planned Nasdaq listing, backed by roughly 8.8 GW of contracted AI data center capacity and an estimated US$430b lease revenue backlog that is still to be realized, offers a path for SoftBank Group to crystallize part of this embedded value and potentially improve reported NAV and investment gains.

See why 23 investors see SoftBank Group as 45% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of ¥7,782 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the SoftBank Group story can change quickly if refinancing those AI linked commitments becomes tougher, or if key IPOs and liquidity events keep slipping.

Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

Another View: SoftBank Group On Cash Flows

That 45% undervalued fair value hinges on analyst targets and earnings multiples. A different lens, the SWS DCF model built on future cash flows, points the other way and suggests SoftBank Group at ¥4,305 is trading above an estimated value of ¥2,493 per share. Which signal do you trust more when cash generation is the anchor?

For a closer look at the assumptions behind that cash flow view, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

9984 Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2026
9984 Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out SoftBank Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 14 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed messages on SoftBank Group’s value story are clear, with both risk flags and bright spots in play. Move fast and weigh the data yourself using 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond SoftBank Group?

If SoftBank Group has sharpened your focus on where capital really works hardest, do not stop here. Broader opportunities across sectors can reshape your portfolio.